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Aryna Sabalenka faces Victoria Mboko in the Australian Open last-16 on hard courts on 25 January, a best-of-three contest with live stream and TV details alongside our preview.
The market has Sabalenka as a clear favourite, and her recent numbers back that up. Still, as a note of caution, this is the second week in Melbourne and every match can feel complicated once the stakes rise.FINISHED
Sabalenka A.
Mboko V.
6-1
, 7-6
On hard courts this season Sabalenka is 8-0, with one title, and her profile is built on clean holds and consistent pressure on return. Mboko is 8-2 on the same surface, but her matches have tended to stretch longer on average, which can test nerve and patience. The separation is clearest in overall control: Sabalenka has paired an 86% service-games-won rate with 46% on return, a combination that usually keeps scorelines moving her way.
Sabalenka comes in at 9-1 across her last 10, and she has taken the opening set 90% of the time, which matters in best-of-three matches. Mboko is 8-2 in that same span, but her first-set win rate is 60%, so she has more often had to solve problems mid-match.
There is also a workload edge on paper: over the last three matches Mboko has spent 5 hours 6 minutes on court to Sabalenka’s 4 hours 35 minutes, even if neither has been playing back-to-back.Want to catch the match live? Our top pick is bet365. It's hands-down our favorite way to follow the whole tennis season. Just keep in mind a few rules: you need to be over 18 and have a funded account to access the stream. Also, geo-restrictions do apply, so make sure to double-check that the match is available in your region before signing up.
Bookmakers price Sabalenka at 1.14 against Mboko at 5.5; first-set prices are 1.25 versus 4. It reflects a belief that Sabalenka can get on top early and keep control of the scoreboard.
Sabalenka A.
Mboko V.
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The numbers point to Sabalenka’s ability to dictate: she has been holding reliably and doing more damage on return, which can squeeze the space for a lower-margin service day. Mboko’s recent run shows she can recover and compete deep into matches, but her higher double-fault rate over the last 10 adds a risk when points tighten. In a week where the atmosphere sharpens and small swings matter, those free points can become the difference between hanging around and being chased off the baseline.
Prediction
Aryna Sabalenka
Victoria Mboko
Overall indicators tilt towards Aryna Sabalenka, led by the market pricing and her stronger hard-court efficiency this season. Her recent run also suggests she is starting fast, which is a major lever in best-of-three tennis. Victoria Mboko has shown she can stay in matches, but with a slightly heavier recent workload and a higher rate of double faults, the balance of evidence still leans Sabalenka’s way.
Odds
