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ATP/French Open ATP/1/64-finals

Ruud's return game could slow Safiullin perfect clay run

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: May 24, 2026(..)

Casper Ruud faces Roman Safiullin in the French Open ATP 1/64-finals on 25 May, on clay, in a best-of-five match.

Ruud enters as the clear market favourite, but Safiullin has strong recent clay results and brings real match rhythm from qualification. The main question is whether Safiullin's winning run can hold up against Ruud's higher level and stronger return numbers.

FINISHED

Ruud C.

Safiullin R.

6-2

, 7-6

, 5-7

, 0-6

, 6-2

Ruud owns the only meeting

Ruud leads the rivalry 1-0 after a straight-sets win over Safiullin in Toronto on 29 July 2025. That match was on hard court, so it does not settle the clay question, but the numbers still matter: Ruud won 12 games to Safiullin's six and created more pressure on return.

Ruud C.

Safiullin R.

Wins

1 0

First Serve Points Won

73 %61 %

Second Serve Points Won

45 %44 %

Return Points Won

45 %36 %

Break Points Converted

80 %33 %

Break Points Saved

67 %20 %

Safiullin brings clay volume

Safiullin's clay record this season is 20 wins and three losses, helped by two Challenger titles, so this is not a cold start. Ruud's 13-4 clay record is lighter by volume but stronger in ATP context, and his 35% return games won stands out against Safiullin's 27%.

Recent runs tell different stories

Ruud has won eight of his last 10 matches, with a final run in Rome and a semi-final run in Geneva showing good clay level despite two recent defeats. Safiullin is 9-1 over the same span and came through French Open qualification, but much of that run came below ATP main-draw level. He is winning often. This is a bigger step.

Bookmakers make Ruud clear favourite

Bookmakers price Ruud at 1.13 against Safiullin at 6, with first-set prices of 1.25 and 4. That is a strong lean towards Ruud, and it fits the ranking gap as well as the broader clay return profile.

Ruud C.

Safiullin R.

Win Percentage

80 %90 %

Titles

0 1

Aces per match

2.4 3.8

Double Faults per match

1.8 3

First Serve Points Won

72 %70 %

Second Serve Points Won

59 %54 %

Return Points Won

45 %40 %

Break Points Converted

49 %48 %

Break Points Saved

40 %72 %

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Return pressure may decide it

Safiullin's serve numbers on clay are strong, with 89% of service games held this season, so Ruud may need to work through close games rather than expect easy breaks. Still, Ruud's return edge is the clearest match-up factor, and over best of five it gives him more time to wear down resistance. Safiullin has also spent 10 hours and 24 minutes on court across his last five matches, which adds a small workload note.

Prediction

French Open ATPPICK

Casper Ruud

78%

Predicted Winner

Roman Safiullin

The data points to Ruud, mainly because the market view, ranking gap and clay return numbers all line up in his favour. Safiullin's recent winning run deserves respect, but Ruud's ATP clay level and previous win in the rivalry make him the stronger pick.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS