Gauff favoured, but Liu's grass form keeps warning signs alive

Claire Liu faces Coco Gauff in the Wimbledon WTA 1/16-finals on 3 July, with a best-of-three grass match carrying a clear ranking gap.

Gauff is strongly favoured by the market and has won both previous meetings. Still, Liu's recent grass numbers make this less simple than the prices alone suggest.

Gauff holds the rivalry edge

Gauff leads the match-up 2-0, with their last meeting a straight-sets win in Auckland on hard court on 2 January 2024. The numbers from those meetings also lean her way: she has won 79% of service games compared with Liu's 50%, which points to a clear pressure gap when they have shared a court.

Liu brings stronger grass results

Liu's grass record stands at 5-1 this season, while Gauff is 2-1. The serving gap is small, with Liu winning 79% of service games and Gauff 80%, but Liu's 40% return-game mark is the stronger return signal on this surface.

Recent form gives Liu a case

Liu has won eight of her last 10 matches, compared with six wins from Gauff's last 10. That matters because Liu has also been more efficient on return lately, winning 46% of return games and converting 59% of break points, so she has a route into Gauff's service games if she starts well.

Bookmakers stay firmly with Gauff

Bookmakers price Gauff at 1.11 against Liu at 6.5, with first-set prices of 1.17 and 5. The market view is clear, even if some of the recent and grass-specific data adds caution.

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Return pressure is Liu's opening

The match looks shaped by a split between Gauff's higher standing, past control of the rivalry and market support, against Liu's sharper recent record on grass. Liu has also spent a little more time on court across her last five matches, but not by enough to dominate the preview. Her best chance is to make Gauff work early; Gauff's case rests on holding serve under pressure and using the match-up history well.

Prediction

Odds