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Elena Rybakina meets Elise Mertens in the Australian Open last 16 on hard courts on 26 January, with a best-of-three quarter-final place at stake.
This preview also explains how to watch or follow the match live, and why the numbers point to a clear lean despite the second-week feeling that every match comes with extra complications.Rybakina has the higher ranking and a strong head-to-head lead, but Mertens’ recent level suggests she can make it awkward if she gets pressure on the return early.FINISHED
Rybakina E.
Mertens E.
6-1
, 6-3
Rybakina leads the head-to-head 6-1, with the meetings typically landing around 21.6 games, so Mertens has often stayed in touch even when the result has gone the other way. Their most recent clash came in Brisbane on 4 January 2024, where Rybakina won in straight sets. Across the rivalry, Rybakina has held serve at 81% to Mertens’ 59%, a gap that helps explain why tight moments have tended to swing her way.
Rybakina E.
Mertens E.
On hard courts this season, Rybakina is 5-1 and Mertens is 6-1, and both have won 82% of their service games, so the baseline level looks similar. The separation comes in defence under stress: Rybakina has saved 74% of break points compared to 46% for Mertens, which can decide sets quickly when chances are scarce.
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Rybakina is 8-2 over her last 10 matches, while Mertens is 7-3, and there is a clear serving punch to Rybakina’s run with 8.7 aces per match. Mertens’ return output has been comparable overall, but Rybakina has taken first sets more often, winning 70% to Mertens’ 60%, which matters in a three-set format where early control can simplify the workload.
Rybakina E.
Mertens E.
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Bookmakers price Rybakina at 1.17 against Mertens at 5, with first-set prices at 1.29 versus 3.75. It is a strong market steer, though the second-week context adds a note of caution about how clean any match can be at this stage.
The overall picture points to Rybakina’s serve setting the tone, backed up by the head-to-head pattern and a season-long edge in saving break points. Mertens, though, has been winning plenty on hard courts and her return numbers are solid enough to keep the match from becoming one-way if she turns early looks into breaks. Workload could also be a factor: Mertens has spent 9 hours 18 minutes on court across her last five matches, compared with 7 hours 23 minutes for Rybakina, and fine margins can feel bigger deep into a major.
Prediction
Elena Rybakina
Elise Mertens
Overall indicators tilt towards Elena Rybakina: the market is heavily in her favour and the 6-1 head-to-head lead is reinforced by a big gap in how often each has held serve in their meetings. Elise Mertens’ hard-court record this season and respectable recent form suggest she can stretch it, especially in the second week when matches rarely stay simple, but Rybakina’s clutch edge on break-point defence makes her the likelier winner.
Odds
