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Felix Auger-Aliassime faces Alexander Shevchenko in the 1/64-finals of Wimbledon ATP on 29 June, with grass and best-of-five conditions setting a clear test.
The market is strongly with Auger-Aliassime, and the grass numbers explain why. Shevchenko arrives with some recent match wins, but the gap in serve strength and main-tour grass form is hard to ignore.FINISHED
Auger-Aliassime F.
Shevchenko A.
6-3
, 6-1
, 6-4
Auger-Aliassime leads the rivalry 1-0 after beating Shevchenko in three sets at Basel ATP (indoor) on hard court in 2023. It was close, with 35 games played, but Auger-Aliassime won both tiebreaks. That matters on grass, where short margins can decide sets quickly.
Auger-Aliassime F.
Shevchenko A.
Auger-Aliassime is 3-2 on grass this season and has held 91% of his service games, which gives him a strong base for a best-of-five opener. Shevchenko has only one listed grass match this season, a loss, and did not win a return game in that sample. It is a small sample, but it still points to a clear serve gap.
Auger-Aliassime has won seven of his last 10 matches, with 87% of service games won across that run. Shevchenko is 5-5 in his last 10 and did reach a Challenger final on clay, but his latest grass outing ended in a straight-sets qualifying defeat. The form is not poor, yet the level shift is sharp.
Bookmakers price Auger-Aliassime at 1.05 against Shevchenko at 11, while the first-set prices are 1.2 and 4.5. Those numbers frame Auger-Aliassime as a heavy favourite from the start, not just over the full match.
Auger-Aliassime F.
Shevchenko A.
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The match points towards Auger-Aliassime controlling more service games and forcing Shevchenko to chase. Shevchenko can compete if he returns well enough to extend sets, but the grass data gives him little support there. Auger-Aliassime has also played more recent court time, though without a back-to-back flag, so workload is only a mild caution.
Prediction
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Alexander Shevchenko
The data points strongly towards Auger-Aliassime. The odds, grass service numbers and only previous meeting all support him, while Shevchenko needs a much better returning day than his grass sample suggests. The gap is clear, even if early Wimbledon rounds can still bring tight sets.
Odds
