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Felix Auger-Aliassime faces Dino Prizmic in the 1/32-finals at Wimbledon ATP on 1 July, with a best-of-five grass match at stake.
The market is strongly behind Auger-Aliassime, and the grass numbers help explain why. Prizmic has enough recent wins to make this interesting, but the gap on serve looks hard to ignore.FINISHED
Auger-Aliassime F.
Prizmic D.
7-6
, 6-3
, 7-5
Auger-Aliassime is 4-2 on grass this season, while Prizmic has a thinner 1-1 record on the surface. The bigger difference is on serve: Auger-Aliassime has held 92% of service games on grass, compared with 83% for Prizmic, which gives him a clearer route through tight sets.
Both players are 7-3 across their last 10 matches, so the form line is not one-sided. Auger-Aliassime has still been harder to break, holding 90% of service games in that run, while Prizmic has shown better return activity at 26% of return games won. That keeps some danger in the match.
Bookmakers price Auger-Aliassime at 1.14 against Prizmic at 5.5, with the first-set prices also leaning his way at 1.33 versus 3.4. That points to a strong favourite, not just a slight edge.
Prizmic has spent 9 hours and 4 minutes on court across his last three matches, compared with 6 hours and 41 minutes for Auger-Aliassime. Neither player is on a back-to-back, but in a best-of-five match that extra load may matter. Prizmic needs return pressure early, because long service games would suit Auger-Aliassime more.
Auger-Aliassime F.
Prizmic D.
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Prediction
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Dino Prizmic
The data points clearly more towards Auger-Aliassime, mainly because his grass serve numbers and the market view both support the same side. Prizmic's recent record and return numbers stop this from looking risk-free, but Auger-Aliassime has the stronger base for a best-of-five grass match.
Odds
