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Felix Auger-Aliassime faces Novak Djokovic in the Wimbledon ATP quarter-finals on grass on 7 July, with a best-of-five place in the semi-finals at stake.
The market leans clearly towards Djokovic, but the data is not one-way. Auger-Aliassime has served strongly on grass, while Djokovic brings cleaner first-set form and slightly better return numbers.Their record is split at 1-1, with no previous grass meeting in the supplied data. Djokovic won 2-0 in the Rome quarter-finals on clay on 13 May 2022, while Auger-Aliassime also has a straight-sets win over him on hard courts from their other listed meeting. The two matches were tight enough overall, averaging 23.5 games, so the past record adds context rather than a clear answer.
Auger-Aliassime F.
Djokovic N.
Auger-Aliassime is 7-2 on grass this season and has won 95% of his service games, which gives him a clear route to staying close. Djokovic is 4-0 on the same surface, with a stronger break-point conversion rate at 52%, so his edge is more about taking chances than dominating every service pattern.
Both players are 7-3 across their last 10 matches, but they have arrived here in different ways. Auger-Aliassime has won four in a row at Wimbledon and is holding serve at 92% in that run of form, while Djokovic has also won four straight and has taken the first set in 80% of his last 10 matches. That matters early.
Bookmakers price Djokovic at 1.53 against Auger-Aliassime at 2.5, with first-set prices of 1.62 and 2.3. That is a clear lean towards Djokovic, though not a price that removes the danger from Auger-Aliassime’s serve.
Auger-Aliassime F.
Djokovic N.
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Auger-Aliassime’s best path is simple: protect serve, force short pressure games and stretch the match into long sets. Djokovic’s case rests on return quality, first-set control and better conversion when chances arrive. Workload is close over the last three matches, but Djokovic has spent more time on court across the last five, so efficiency could matter if this becomes long.
Prediction
Novak Djokovic
Felix Auger-Aliassime
The data points slightly more towards Djokovic, mainly because the market favours him, his first-set numbers are stronger and his return game gives him more ways to apply pressure. Auger-Aliassime’s grass serve makes this dangerous, but Djokovic’s chance-taking profile gives him the narrower overall edge.
Odds
