Jovic's serve return a threat, but Anisimova holds the key numbers

Amanda Anisimova takes on Iva Jovic in the London WTA quarter-finals on 12 June, a best-of-three grass-court match that pits the world number six against the 17th-ranked teenager.

Bookmakers price Anisimova as the favourite at 1.73, and while Jovic has started the grass season with two wins, the numbers suggest a narrow but clear lean towards the higher-ranked American.

Grass numbers small but revealing

Jovic has won both her grass matches this season, converting an impressive 71% of break points and winning 59% of return games. Anisimova has only one outing on the surface, but she won 100% of her service games and saved every break point she faced. The samples are tiny, yet both players look comfortable on grass.

Identical records, different textures

Over their last ten matches, both own a 6-4 record. Jovic takes 80% of first sets but has lost every deciding set she has played. Anisimova wins 60% of first sets and holds a 50% record in third sets, suggesting greater resilience when matches go deep. On service and return games, Anisimova edges ahead: 72% of service games won to 67%, and 45% of return games to 41%. That gap could prove decisive on grass.

Bookmakers lean to Anisimova

The market prices Anisimova at 1.73 to win, with Jovic at 2.1. First-set odds follow a similar pattern: Anisimova at 1.8, Jovic at 2.0. The numbers point to a competitive contest, but the favourite is given a clear edge.

Fresh legs and serve pressure

Anisimova has spent roughly 90 minutes less on court over her last three matches, a small but potentially useful advantage. Jovic's strong grass return numbers – 59% of return games won – could trouble Anisimova's perfect service hold rate from her one match. But that 100% mark is unlikely to hold, and Anisimova's steadier recent serving (72% of service games won) offers a more predictable platform. Fatigue also leans lightly in the favourite's favour.

Prediction

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