Grass rhythm gives Samuel a chance against Mensik

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Jun 26, 2026(..)

Jakub Mensik faces Toby Samuel in the Wimbledon ATP first round on grass on 29 June, with the match set for best of five sets.

Mensik brings the stronger ranking and clearer market support, but Samuel has played far more recent grass-court tennis. That makes the match less simple than the prices alone suggest.

Samuel has the grass reps

Samuel is 5-4 on grass this season, while Mensik has only one recorded grass match and lost it. That gives Samuel a useful rhythm on the surface, especially with his return games won sitting level with Mensik at 22% on grass. Mensik still has the stronger serve base, winning 83% of service games in his small grass sample.

Mensik's broader level stands out

Across the season, Mensik is 23-11 and has already built a stronger top-level record. Samuel's 27-13 season is good, and two Challenger titles show he has been winning regularly, but the jump in class matters here. Mensik's 83% service hold rate overall gives him a clear route to control.

Recent form keeps the door open

Mensik has gone 6-4 across his last 10 matches, helped by a French Open semi-final run before back-to-back defeats. Samuel is 5-5 in the same span, yet his recent grass spell includes an Eastbourne semi-final and several straight-sets wins. His 70% first-set win rate is a warning sign for a slow start from Mensik.

Bookmakers side with Mensik

Bookmakers price Mensik at 1.33 against Samuel at 3.4, with the first-set market also favouring Mensik at 1.5 to 2.63. The gap reflects the ranking difference and the stronger season profile, not just grass form.

Mensik J.

Samuel T.

Win Percentage

60 %60 %

Aces per match

8.4 5

Double Faults per match

4.8 2.1

First Serve Points Won

76 %71 %

Second Serve Points Won

46 %48 %

Return Points Won

37 %37 %

Break Points Converted

31 %45 %

Break Points Saved

57 %68 %

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Serve control meets grass rhythm

Mensik's case is built on serve strength, higher rank and a better overall season. Samuel's case is more surface-specific: he has more grass matches in his legs and enough recent wins to make this competitive in patches. The longer format should help the better player settle if there are early swings.

Prediction

Wimbledon ATPPICK

Jakub Mensik

68%

Predicted Winner

Toby Samuel

The data points towards Mensik, mainly because of the market view, his stronger season level and his higher service hold numbers. Samuel's grass match load and fast-start trend reduce the comfort level, but over best of five sets Mensik still looks the more reliable winner.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS