Sinner's grass numbers leave Mochizuki with little margin

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Jul 4, 2026(..)

Jannik Sinner faces Shintaro Mochizuki in the Wimbledon ATP 1/8-finals on 5 July, on grass, in a best-of-five match.

The gap is clear in the rankings and the odds, but Mochizuki brings real grass momentum after coming through qualifying and winning his first three main-draw matches. Sinner still has the stronger overall case, with heavier serve numbers and a far better season record.

Grass record still favours Sinner

Sinner is 3-0 on grass this season, while Mochizuki is 8-3 and has played more matches on the surface. That extra grass workload helps Mochizuki’s rhythm, but Sinner has held 91% of his service games on grass, which gives him a clear base of control in a best-of-five match.

Mochizuki’s return rate is stronger at 30%, so he is not without a route into sets. The problem is simple: he may need several breaks, and Sinner has not given many away.

Recent wins keep both players sharp

Sinner has won nine of his last 10 matches and has taken his last two Wimbledon rounds in straight sets. His first-set win rate in that run is 90%, so he has usually started matches before opponents can settle.

Mochizuki has won eight of his last 10 and arrives with eight wins in his last nine. That is strong form, but his 74% service-games-won mark across the last 10 sits well below Sinner’s 88%, which matters against a top returner.

Market gives Sinner a heavy edge

Bookmakers price Sinner at 1.02 against Mochizuki at 19, with first-set prices of 1.08 and 8. That is an extreme view, and it matches the gap in rank, season record and service strength.

Mochizuki needs early return pressure

Mochizuki’s best chance is to make Sinner work early and turn return games into long, awkward passages. He has converted 47% of break points in his last 10 matches, so he can punish openings.

Still, Sinner’s serve gives him more safety. With 10.1 aces per match in recent play and a 40-3 overall season record, the wider indicators point firmly in his direction.

Sinner J.

Mochizuki S.

Win Percentage

90 %80 %

Titles

1 0

Aces per match

10.1 5.6

Double Faults per match

2.4 3.2

First Serve Points Won

79 %75 %

Second Serve Points Won

55 %49 %

Return Points Won

42 %43 %

Break Points Converted

45 %47 %

Break Points Saved

59 %58 %

Our new tennis stats site is live!

Prediction

Wimbledon ATPPICK

Jannik Sinner

91%

Predicted Winner

Shintaro Mochizuki

The data points strongly towards Sinner, mainly because of the market view, his 40-3 season record and his stronger serve protection on grass. Mochizuki’s recent run deserves respect, especially after his qualifying path and main-draw wins, but he needs a major return performance to keep this close.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS