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ATP/French Open ATP/1/64-finals

Serve strength keeps Hurkacz slightly ahead of Munar

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: May 24, 2026(..)

Jaume Munar faces Hubert Hurkacz in the French Open ATP 1/64-finals on clay on 25 May, with the match played over best of five sets.

The key split is clear. Munar brings the higher ranking and a stronger return profile on clay, but Hurkacz has the edge in the market, the broader clay results, and the heavier service numbers.

FINISHED

Munar J.

Hurkacz H.

3-6

, 3-6

, 6-2

, 3-6

Hurkacz holds the only rivalry win

Their only previous meeting went to Hurkacz, who beat Munar 3-2 at the Next Gen Finals in Milan on hard court in 2018. It offers only limited clay guidance, but the match did show Hurkacz holding serve more often and creating more break chances, which fits the main pressure point here.

Munar J.

Hurkacz H.

Wins

0 1

First Serve Points Won

68 %72 %

Second Serve Points Won

43 %48 %

Return Points Won

36 %41 %

Break Points Converted

33 %50 %

Break Points Saved

50 %67 %

Clay numbers favour Hurkacz's serve

On clay this season, Hurkacz is 7-4 while Munar is 4-5. The bigger gap is on serve: Hurkacz has held 82% of service games on the surface, compared with 71% for Munar, so he should have a clearer route through tight games.

Recent form stays close

Both players are 5-5 across their recent matches, so the form line is not one-sided. Hurkacz reached the final in Cagliari before back-to-back defeats, while Munar made a Geneva quarter-final run but has also lost three of his last five.

Bookmakers keep Hurkacz in front

Bookmakers price Hurkacz at 1.8 against Munar at 2, with the same 1.8 against 2 split in the first-set market. That is a lean rather than a strong call, and it matches the narrow feel of the match-up.

Munar J.

Hurkacz H.

Win Percentage

40 %60 %

Aces per match

1.8 9.5

Double Faults per match

1.8 1.7

First Serve Points Won

68 %73 %

Second Serve Points Won

49 %58 %

Return Points Won

38 %39 %

Break Points Converted

35 %38 %

Break Points Saved

61 %64 %

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Return pressure keeps Munar alive

Munar's best route is to make Hurkacz defend more second serves and stretch the rallies on clay. His return numbers are stronger on the surface, but Hurkacz's serve, better deciding-set record in recent matches, and 10 hours and 6 minutes played across his last five matches all point to a contest where workload and service control may decide the margins.

Prediction

French Open ATPPICK

Hubert Hurkacz

56%

Predicted Winner

Jaume Munar

The data points slightly more towards Hubert Hurkacz, mainly because his clay-season record, service hold rate and market position are all a little stronger. Munar's return game and lighter recent workload make this far from clear-cut, but Hurkacz has the stronger overall case.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS