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Jessica Pegula and Amanda Anisimova meet in the Dubai WTA semi-finals on hard courts on Friday 20 February, with a best-of-three place in the final at stake.
Pegula arrives with a clean head-to-head edge and a narrow ranking lead, while the market also makes her the favourite. This preview breaks down the form and the match-up, and it also explains the simplest ways to watch or follow the contest live.FINISHED
Pegula J.
Anisimova A.
1-6
, 6-4
, 6-3
Pegula leads Anisimova 4-0 overall, but several sets have turned on fine margins, with two deciding sets and two tiebreaks across the series. The most recent meeting came in the Toronto WTA final on 12 Aug 2024, when Pegula won 2-1 and again held firm at key moments. Their four matches have averaged 24.3 games, so even a one-sided record has still produced pressure.
Pegula J.
Anisimova A.
On hard courts this season, Pegula is 11-2 and has held serve at an 80% clip, a steady platform in a match-up that can swing on a few tight games. Anisimova is 7-3 on the surface and her return rate is similar, but her service level has been lower at 72%, which can leave more exposure when sets get close. Break-point figures are broadly comparable, so the separation is more about how often each player protects serve.
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Pegula is 8-2 across her last 10 matches and has paired an 81% service-games rate with just 1.0 double faults per match, keeping her baseline level high. Anisimova is 7-3, yet her recent double-fault rate sits at 4.4, and that can turn single breaks into a bigger hill to climb. Pegula has also won 80% of first sets in that spell, compared with 60% for Anisimova.
Pegula J.
Anisimova A.
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Bookmakers price Pegula at 1.62 against Anisimova at 2.3, with first-set odds of 1.67 versus 2.2. It is a clear lean rather than a runaway, reflecting the tight stretches in their past meetings even when the outcome has gone one way.
The story so far is straightforward: Pegula has won the rivalry, including both deciding sets, and she has tended to come through the moments that decide sets on hard courts. Recent numbers point to the same pressure points, with Pegula's cleaner serving profile contrasting with Anisimova's higher error risk on serve, even as the return figures sit close. Both players are coming off back-to-back matches, and Pegula has logged 4 hours 26 minutes across her last three compared with 3 hours 49 minutes for Anisimova, so freshness is worth monitoring as the match deepens.
Prediction
Jessica Pegula
Amanda Anisimova
Overall indicators tilt towards Jessica Pegula: the odds make her the favourite and the 4-0 head-to-head, including a 2-1 win in the Toronto final, reinforces that pattern. Her recent serve stability and stronger first-set hit rate also suggest a cleaner path through tight games, even with both players carrying back-to-back workload into the semi-final.
Odds
