Fatigue and serve: why Pliskova could upset the odds

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Jun 7, 2026(..)

Former world number one Karolina Pliskova meets the higher-ranked McCartney Kessler in the London WTA last 16 on 8 June, with the pair contesting a best-of-three-set match on grass.

The market prices Kessler as a narrow favourite, but Pliskova's superior overall season record, recent winning rhythm and a notable workload advantage for the American all point towards a potential upset.

FINISHED

Pliskova Ka.

Kessler M.

6-7

, 6-3

, 6-4

Pliskova's steadier season numbers

Pliskova has compiled a 14-7 win-loss record this season, winning 69% of her service games. That is a sturdy foundation. Kessler sits at 14-13, with a 64% hold rate but a marginally better return game at 36%. On grass, holding serve is paramount, giving Pliskova a meaningful edge.

Recent form favours the former top-five player

Over her last ten matches, Pliskova has won seven. She has dropped only two of five deciding sets, a sign of mental toughness. Kessler has lost six of ten, and she has taken the first set in just 30% of those matches. That often leaves her chasing the match.

Market leans narrowly to Kessler

Bookmakers give Kessler a slight edge at 1.81, with Pliskova priced at 2.00. The first-set market is almost identical at 1.96 and 1.81. It suggests a tight contest where the American is a narrow favourite.

Serve and workload tilt the balance

Pliskova's heavier serve and better hold rate should protect her on grass. Kessler's return numbers are better, but she has spent nearly six hours on court in her last three matches, compared to Pliskova's three and a half. That workload may leave Kessler a fraction heavier in the legs. Given Pliskova's superior recent record and her resilience in deciding sets, the data tilts cautiously towards the former top-five player.

Pliskova Ka.

Kessler M.

Win Percentage

70 %40 %

Aces per match

2.5 1.2

Double Faults per match

6.6 3.3

First Serve Points Won

66 %58 %

Second Serve Points Won

43 %41 %

Return Points Won

42 %47 %

Break Points Converted

50 %43 %

Break Points Saved

54 %54 %

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Prediction

London WTAPICK

Karolina Pliskova

53%

Predicted Winner

McCartney Kessler

Pliskova holds serve more reliably and arrives in sharper recent form. Kessler's extra court time and modest first-set record are small but meaningful concerns. Overall indicators lean narrowly towards Pliskova to advance.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS