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Lorenzo Musetti faces Tomas Machac in the Australian Open last 16 on hard courts on 24 January, with a best-of-five format that can quickly turn small edges into big pressure. This preview also covers how to watch or follow the match live, alongside the key numbers behind the match-up.
Musetti is ranked fifth and the odds make him a narrow favourite, but Machac brings momentum and the only previous win between them. The season is only in its third week, so the signals are still settling. That makes this a useful early read on where both players stand as the tournament moves into its second week.FINISHED
Musetti L.
Machac T.
5-7
, 6-4
, 6-2
, 5-7
, 6-2
The head-to-head is small but decisive: Machac leads 1-0 overall and 1-0 on hard courts after a 2-0 win in Marseille (indoor) on 7 February 2024. It was a quick match at 17 games on average, and the serve gap was stark, with Machac holding 89% of service games to Musetti’s 50%. If it tilts that way again, Musetti’s second-serve resilience becomes a clear pressure point.
Musetti L.
Machac T.
On hard courts this season, Musetti is 5-1 while Machac is 7-1, and Machac has already banked an ATP title in the opening weeks. The break-point figures lean his way too, converting 44% and saving 72%, compared with Musetti’s 38% and 68%. It is still only week three, so volume is limited, but the pattern points to Machac applying more consistent pressure at key moments.
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Musetti is 6-4 across his last 10 matches and has won four of his last five, including a straight-sets win over Lorenzo Sonego in the previous round. Machac is 7-3 in the same span and arrives on a seven-match winning streak, having beaten Grigor Dimitrov in straight sets and Stefanos Tsitsipas in four at this event. Starts could matter in a long match: Musetti has taken 40% of first sets in that stretch, while Machac sits at 50%.
Musetti L.
Machac T.
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Bookmakers price Musetti at 1.62 against Machac at 2.3; the first-set prices are 1.67 versus 2.2. It signals a Musetti edge on reputation and ranking, but the gap is not wide.
Musetti’s higher ranking and slightly stronger recent hold rate (77% to 74%) fit the demands of five sets, where steady service games can keep a match on a familiar track. Machac’s recent edge has been efficiency on big points, and that matters more when the match stretches.
Both come in off back-to-back wins and similar court time over the last three matches, so the story is less about freshness and more about who manages the key swings. If Musetti raises the level on second-serve points, the odds picture makes sense; if not, Machac has already shown he can keep him under strain.Prediction
Lorenzo Musetti
Tomas Machac
Overall indicators tilt slightly towards Lorenzo Musetti, with the market backing him and his straight-sets progress through the tournament helping in a best-of-five setting. Tomas Machac’s title-winning momentum and his win in their only meeting keep the margins tight, especially with the season still in its opening weeks. It looks like a Musetti edge, not a comfortable one.
Odds
