The Best Tennis Stats.
Our new tennis stats site is live!
Flavio Cobolli and Mariano Navone meet in the first round at Wimbledon, a best-of-five contest on grass. The Italian arrives with a huge ranking advantage and the momentum of a run to the French Open final. But the surface switch and Navone's recent clay form add uncertainty to the market view.
Cobolli is priced as a heavy favourite at 1.29, with Navone a 3.75 outsider. The surface-specific data is thin, but the Italian's superior service numbers and recent deep run at Roland Garros set a clear baseline.The only previous meeting came at Umag in 2024 on clay. Cobolli won in straight sets, dropping just five games across the match. The surface is different now, but the data from that contest offers a clear pattern: Cobolli won 100% of his service games, while Navone's return game yielded zero break points converted from just two opportunities. The Italian's first-serve points won percentage was 74% compared to Navone's 55%, a gap that could translate to grass where hold rates tend to be higher.
Navone M.
Cobolli F.
Cobolli's overall season form shows a strong 81% service games won percentage, compared to Navone's 74%. That difference matters on grass, where holding serve is at a premium. The Italian also holds a slight edge in break points saved at 63% versus 57%. However, Navone is more effective on return, converting 32% of return games to Cobolli's 20%, a factor that could keep the match competitive if he can find his range on the faster surface.
Both players have won six of their last ten matches, but the context is sharply different. Cobolli reached the French Open final, a gruelling clay run that included a walkover and a five-set defeat to Alexander Zverev. Navone also had a strong clay swing, including a run to the Geneva final and a win over Casper Ruud. But Navone has played more court time recently, logging over ten hours in his last three matches compared to Cobolli's five. That workload could leave the Argentine with heavier legs heading into a potential five-setter.
Bookmakers price Cobolli at 1.29 to win the match and 1.44 to win the first set. Navone is rated a 3.75 underdog, with first-set odds at 2.75. The prices imply a dominant expectation, reflecting the Italian's higher ranking and recent run to a major final. The market also expects him to carry that momentum onto the grass, where his faster serve and confident hold game could prove decisive.
Navone M.
Cobolli F.
The Best Tennis Stats.
Our new tennis stats site is live!
The key dynamic centres on Cobolli's first-strike tennis against Navone's counterpunching game. Cobolli's 6.3 aces per match in his last ten outings gives him a clear weapon to free up service games and apply scoreboard pressure. Navone, by contrast, has won just 32% of return games overall and only 13% on grass this season. If Cobolli can hold easily and force Navone to play from behind, the Italian's superior break-point conversion rate of 46% over the last ten matches could prove decisive early in sets.
Prediction
Flavio Cobolli
Mariano Navone
The data points heavily towards Cobolli. His recent deep run at the French Open underlines his form against top opposition, and his serve is a more reliable weapon on grass than Navone's. The H2H win on clay also showed he can handle the Argentine's game, albeit on a slower surface. Navone's return game is a threat, but his heavier recent workload and lower grass-court output make an upset look less likely.
Odds
