Small margins put Kostyuk slightly ahead of Noskova

Marta Kostyuk faces Linda Noskova in the Wimbledon WTA semi-finals on grass on 9 July, with a best-of-three place in the final at stake.

Noskova brings the broader grass record and the stronger recent win count, but Kostyuk has the sharper return numbers and a previous win in the match-up. That makes this a close call, rather than a simple market-led pick.

Kostyuk holds the only past win

Kostyuk leads the rivalry 1-0 after beating Noskova 2-0 in the Madrid WTA quarter-finals on clay on 29 April 2026. That match included one tie-break, won by Kostyuk, and finished with an average total of 19.0 games, so the only direct meeting points more to control than chaos.

The surface is different now. Still, Kostyuk’s ability to punish second serves in that meeting is relevant because it shows where she can apply pressure again.

Grass numbers split the case

Noskova has the heavier grass record this season at 10-1 and has already taken one WTA title on the surface. Kostyuk is 5-0, though, and her 87% hold rate is slightly better than Noskova’s 85%.

The bigger difference comes on return. Kostyuk has won 43% of return games on grass, compared with Noskova’s 31%, which gives her a clearer route into service games if Noskova’s first serve dips.

Noskova arrives with stronger recent rhythm

Noskova is 9-1 across her last 10 matches, while Kostyuk is 8-2, so both arrive in strong form. Noskova has held 84% of service games in that spell and has won the first set in 80% of those matches, which suggests she has often started cleanly.

Kostyuk’s recent profile is less serve-heavy but more balanced. Her 44% return-game win rate across the last 10 gives her a strong counterweight if rallies become more important than first strikes.

Market makes Kostyuk a narrow favourite

Bookmakers price Kostyuk at 1.73 against Noskova at 2.1, with first-set prices of 1.8 and 2.0. That is a lean, not a strong verdict, and it fits the numbers.

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Return pressure may decide it

Noskova’s serve gives her a clear path, especially if she keeps landing cheap points and protects early leads. Kostyuk’s edge is different: she has been stronger at turning return games into pressure, both on grass this season and in recent matches.

Workload is not a major separator, but Noskova has spent about an hour more on court over the last five matches. In a tight semi-final, that slightly supports the player with the cleaner return route.

Prediction

Odds