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Nicolas Mejia faces Pablo Llamas Ruiz in the French Open ATP qualifying quarter-finals on 18 May, with clay conditions and a best-of-five format setting a demanding test.
The numbers lean strongly towards Llamas Ruiz. He brings the deeper clay record, the firmer recent form and clear market support, though Mejia's Challenger title run keeps the match from looking entirely one-sided.FINISHED
Mejia N.
Llamas Ruiz P.
3-6
, 6-7
Llamas Ruiz has gone 17-5 on clay this season, a broader and more convincing body of work than Mejia's 6-3 record on the surface. His return numbers are also stronger, with 30% of return games won and 43% of break points converted, which suggests he should create more pressure across longer sets.
Mejia's last 10 record stands at 6-4, but the pattern has shifted after his San Luis Potosi run, where he reached the final and won five straight matches. He has lost three in a row since, all in straight sets, so the recent momentum has clearly softened.
Llamas Ruiz is 7-3 across his last 10 and has won seven of his past nine, including a Rome qualifying final and main-draw wins over Ethan Quinn and Corentin Moutet. His first-set win rate is 60% against Mejia's 40%, a useful edge when the favourite is expected to settle early.
Bookmakers price Mejia at 5 against Llamas Ruiz at 1.17, with first-set odds of 4 and 1.22. That is a firm market position, and it fits the gap in clay volume, ranking and recent results.
Mejia N.
Llamas Ruiz P.
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Both players have held 80% of service games in recent matches, so the difference may come when rallies move away from first-strike patterns. Llamas Ruiz has been slightly more productive on return and much sharper on break chances, while Mejia's bigger ace average gives him a route to shorter holds. The workload is worth noting, though: Llamas Ruiz has spent 11 hours 39 minutes on court across his last five matches, two hours more than Mejia.
Prediction
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Nicolas Mejia
The data points clearly towards Pablo Llamas Ruiz, mainly because his clay season is stronger, his recent form is steadier and the market is heavily behind him. Mejia has enough serving power and past clay success to make spells competitive, but Llamas Ruiz's return efficiency and break-point edge make him the more reliable pick.
Odds
