Clay form and market view put Jodar in control

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: May 7, 2026(..)

Nuno Borges faces Rafael Jodar in the 1/32-finals of Rome ATP on 8 May, with clay conditions and a best-of-three format setting the terms.

The match comes with a clear market lean and a strong form contrast. Borges has recent clay wins, but Jodar's broader numbers on the surface give him a firmer base for this match-up.

FINISHED

Borges N.

Jodar R.

6-7

, 4-6

Jodar's clay record sets the tone

Jodar has built a 12-2 clay record this season, while Borges stands at 4-5 on the surface. That gap matters because Jodar is also holding 86% of service games and breaking in 36% of return games, giving him more reliable ways to control rallies and scoreboard pressure.

Borges is not without a route. His 79% hold rate on clay keeps him competitive, but a 21% return-game figure leaves less margin if Jodar protects serve well.

Recent rhythm favours Jodar

The last-10 picture is also tilted towards Jodar, who has won eight of his past 10 matches compared with Borges at four wins and six defeats. He reached the final in Marrakech, made a semi-final run in Barcelona and followed it with a Madrid quarter-final, so the clay sequence has substance.

Borges did win his latest Rome match against Jesper de Jong. Still, his recent return games won rate of 20% trails Jodar's 35%, which suggests he may need a high serving day to keep this tight.

Bookmakers make Jodar a strong favourite

Bookmakers price Borges at 4.5 against Jodar at 1.2; first-set prices are 3.75 against 1.29. That is a firm view, and it broadly matches the statistical profile rather than standing apart from it.

Return pressure is the dividing line

The key dynamic is whether Borges can turn enough Jodar service games into contests. Jodar has the stronger recent first-set trend, winning the opener in 80% of his last 10 matches, and his break-point conversion on clay is also higher at 45%.

Workload does not dramatically separate them. Borges has played about 9 hours 39 minutes across his last five matches, with Jodar close behind at 9 hours 14 minutes, so form and return pressure look more important than fatigue.

Borges N.

Jodar R.

Win Percentage

40 %80 %

Titles

0 1

Aces per match

4.8 3

Double Faults per match

2.6 1.4

First Serve Points Won

74 %71 %

Second Serve Points Won

49 %56 %

Return Points Won

37 %44 %

Break Points Converted

40 %42 %

Break Points Saved

60 %70 %

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Prediction

Rome ATPPICK

Rafael Jodar

74%

Predicted Winner

Nuno Borges

The data points clearly towards Rafael Jodar, with the market view supported by stronger clay-season results and sharper last-10 form. Borges has enough serving quality to make sections of the match competitive, but Jodar's return numbers and first-set trend give him the more complete profile.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS