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Paula Badosa faces Oksana Selekhmeteva in the Australian Open WTA 1/32-finals on hard courts on 22 January, a best-of-three match with plenty at stake as the draw begins to take shape.
The 2026 season is only in its third week, so the sample is still thin, but the contrast is already clear: the market favours Badosa while Selekhmeteva brings the sharper recent record. Below is a concise breakdown of the numbers, plus how to watch or follow the match live.FINISHED
Selekhmeteva O.
Badosa P.
6-4
, 6-4
On hard courts this season, Selekhmeteva is 3-2 while Badosa is 2-2, a reminder that it is still early days in the calendar. The sharper split comes on serve: Badosa has held 87% of her service games so far, while Selekhmeteva sits at 45%, a gap that can decide tight moments quickly.
Selekhmeteva arrives with an 8-2 record over her last 10 matches, compared with Badosa's 4-6, and that difference shows up most on the return. Selekhmeteva has won 48% of return games in that spell, while Badosa is at 25%, so the underdog has been creating far more pressure from the back of the court.
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Bookmakers price Badosa at 1.25 against Selekhmeteva at 4, with first-set prices of 1.33 versus 3.4. It is a firm lean towards the higher-ranked player, even with the season still settling into rhythm.
Selekhmeteva O.
Badosa P.
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If Badosa's early-season serving level holds, it can shorten points and keep Selekhmeteva from building the return games that have fuelled her recent run. But Selekhmeteva's last-10 break-point conversion rate of 60% hints that she can take chances when they appear, and that matters in a best-of-three.
Neither player shows a back-to-back flag, yet Badosa has logged slightly more time recently, at 8 hours 55 minutes across her last five matches, which could add a small endurance angle if the match stretches.Prediction
Paula Badosa
Oksana Selekhmeteva
Overall indicators tilt towards Paula Badosa: the odds are heavily in her favour and her early hard-court hold rate has been markedly higher. Oksana Selekhmeteva's recent form is the main counterweight, particularly her return-game success, so the cleaner path for Badosa is to protect serve early and avoid giving momentum away.
Odds
