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Reilly Opelka meets Tommy Paul in the Adelaide ATP last 16 on hard courts on 13 Jan 2026, with a best-of-three format and plenty on the line in this early-season swing.
This preview also covers how to watch or follow the match live, while the numbers point to a close read: the head-to-head is level and the market still leans towards Paul. With the season only in its second week and the Australian Open looming, the margins may matter more than the volume of results.FINISHED
Opelka R.
Paul T.
4-6
, 4-6
With the season barely underway, the sample is small and the shape can change quickly. Even so, Opelka is 2-2 on hard courts while Paul is 0-1, and the early return figures hint at a difference: Opelka at 20% return games won versus 6% for Paul.
They are 1-1 in their meetings, both on hard courts, and the pattern has swung with the stage: Paul won 2-0 in Dallas in February 2025, while Opelka edged a 2-1 semi-final in Champaign back in 2018.
Across the pair, the average has been 24.5 games per match, and the underlying numbers show why it can feel knife-edge: Opelka has produced more aces, but Paul has created the bulk of the break chances.Opelka R.
Paul T.
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Over their last 10 matches overall, Paul is 4-6 and Opelka is 3-7, so neither arrives with runaway momentum. Opelka’s serve has still been a headline act at 19.3 aces per match, yet Paul has been more productive on return (18% return games won to 9%), and he has also logged the heavier court time lately, about 14 hours 48 minutes across the last five matches.
Opelka R.
Paul T.
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Bookmakers price Tommy Paul at 1.62 against Reilly Opelka at 2.3; first-set prices are 1.67 versus 2.2. It is a clear edge, but not a runaway one.
This shapes as a familiar hard-court tug-of-war: Opelka’s hold rate has been strong recently, but Paul’s better return outcomes suggest he is more likely to turn a few games into real pressure. The early-season context matters, too, with the Australian Open close and both players still settling into rhythm, so a couple of key moments could decide the direction quickly. If Paul can keep enough returns in play and force second serves, the balance of indicators starts to tilt his way.
Prediction
Tommy Paul
Reilly Opelka
Overall indicators tilt towards Tommy Paul at 62%, led by the market position and the stronger recent return numbers that hint at more break chances over a best-of-three. The head-to-head is level, though, and Reilly Opelka’s serve can compress sets into a handful of points, so the edge is real but not definitive.
Odds
