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Alexander Bublik and Tomas Martin Etcheverry meet in the Australian Open 1/16-finals on hard courts on 23 January, with the best-of-five format set to stretch both men.
Below you'll find how to watch or follow the match live, plus what the form, the head-to-head and the market are really saying. It is still only the third week of the 2026 season, though, so early momentum can be sharp and swings can be sudden.FINISHED
Bublik A.
Etcheverry T. M.
7-6
, 7-6
, 6-4
Bublik leads 1-0 from their lone meeting, a three-set quarter-final on clay in May 2025. That match went the distance and averaged 29 games, a reminder that Etcheverry has already shown he can drag the contest into deeper waters.
Bublik A.
Etcheverry T. M.
On hard courts this season Bublik is 6-0 and already has one ATP title, while Etcheverry is 3-2. Break-point numbers add to the picture: Bublik has saved 75% and converted 48%, a cleaner profile so far than Etcheverry's 63% saved and 32% converted.
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Across the last 10 matches Bublik is 8-2, and that run includes two straight-sets wins at the Australian Open to reach this stage. Etcheverry is 6-4 in the same span and has spent notably longer on court recently, logging 9 hours 12 minutes across his last three matches compared with Bublik's 5 hours 59 minutes.
Bublik A.
Etcheverry T. M.
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Bookmakers price Bublik at 1.22 against Etcheverry at 4.33; first-set prices are 1.4 versus 3. The rankings gap mirrors that view, with Bublik sitting 10th and Etcheverry 61st.
The numbers point to tight service holds for both players, so pressure moments could be rare and decisive, especially if Etcheverry can extend exchanges and make this a longer day.
Bublik arrives with the lighter recent workload and the stronger break-point profile, but the season is still in its infancy and a best-of-five match can change quickly. If it stretches, Etcheverry's ability to absorb time on court becomes part of the story rather than a side note.Prediction
Alexander Bublik
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Overall indicators tilt towards Alexander Bublik: the market makes him a clear favourite at 1.22, and his 6-0 hard-court start with a title suggests confidence arriving in Melbourne. The head-to-head is only one match and came on clay, so it should be treated with care, but Etcheverry's heavier recent court time in a best-of-five setting adds a small extra hurdle if this becomes another long one.
Odds
