Our new tennis stats site is live!

ATP/Australian Open ATP/1/16-finals

Zverev v Norrie at the Australian Open: where to watch and what to know

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Jan 22, 2026(..)

Alexander Zverev faces Cameron Norrie in the Australian Open ATP 1/16-finals on hard courts on 23 January, with a best-of-five format that can quickly expose any early-season rust.

It is only the third week of the 2026 campaign, and both men are still settling into Grand Slam rhythm. The head-to-head and the market both point towards Zverev, but Norrie's recent results and workload add a note of intrigue, and this preview also explains how to follow the match live and via streaming.

FINISHED

Zverev A.

3
1

Norrie C.

7-5

, 4-6

, 6-3

, 6-1

Early hard-court edges lean Zverev

Zverev's hard-court record this season stands at 3-1, and his service-game success has been strong at 89%. Norrie is 4-2, yet his hold rate sits much lower at 69%, a split that matters over five sets when momentum can swing on a single loose game. Both samples are small, but Zverev's break-point conversion has been sharper too at 55%.

Zverev's clean sweep over Norrie

Zverev leads this match-up 6-0 overall and 5-0 on hard courts, with the meetings often turning on his ability to protect serve under pressure. Five tie-breaks have been played between them and Zverev has won all five, a strand that underlines how thin the margins have been when sets tighten. One earlier meeting at Montreal in August 2019 ended 2-0 to Zverev, and the broader pattern has been the same across surfaces.

Zverev A.

Norrie C.

Wins
6 0
First Serve Points Won
81 %70 %
Second Serve Points Won
50 %53 %
Return Points Won
36 %27 %
Break Points Converted
33 %19 %
Break Points Saved
81 %67 %

Where to watch Alexander Zverev v. Cameron Norrie Live

By signing up at bet365, you gain access to one of the most reliable live streaming services available for this match and the rest of the tennis season. Access requires a funded account and is limited to users 18+. Be aware that geo-restrictions apply, so verify the schedule for your specific location.

Norrie's last-10 record is stronger, but longer

Norrie comes in at 7-3 across his last 10 matches, while Zverev is 6-4, and Norrie's return numbers in that spell have been the higher of the two at 17% of return games won. Zverev has been cleaner on serve in key moments, though, averaging 0.5 double faults per match and landing nearly 10 aces a match in that run. The physical load also tilts towards Norrie: he has spent 9 hours 5 minutes on court across his last three matches, compared with Zverev's 7 hours 12 minutes.

Zverev A.

Norrie C.

Win Percentage
60 %70 %
Aces per match
9.8 7.1
Double Faults per match
0.5 2.1
First Serve Points Won
74 %71 %
Second Serve Points Won
50 %60 %
Return Points Won
35 %36 %
Break Points Converted
42 %31 %
Break Points Saved
55 %70 %

Our new tennis stats site is live!

Bookmakers make Zverev a clear favourite

Bookmakers price Zverev at 1.22 against Norrie at 4.33; first-set prices stand at 1.36 versus 3.2. It is a strong signal of expectation, even this early in the season.

Left-handed variety meets Zverev's hold-and-pressure pattern

The numbers suggest Zverev's serve will be the first barrier: in their previous meetings he has held 94% of service games on average, which has repeatedly narrowed Norrie's chances to build scoreboard pressure.

Norrie, a left-hander, will want to stretch exchanges and make the match about repeated return looks, especially if he can turn longer sets into a grind. Over five sets, that plan is harder to sustain if the workload mounts, and Norrie's recent time on court could be a quiet factor if the match runs long.

Prediction

Australian Open ATPPICK

Alexander Zverev

78%
Predicted Winner

Cameron Norrie

Overall indicators tilt towards Alexander Zverev: the market makes him the clear favourite and the head-to-head has been one-sided, including a perfect record in tie-breaks between them. His early hard-court serving numbers also look sturdier, which is a big edge in a best-of-five. Cameron Norrie's recent run is slightly stronger on paper, but he has carried the heavier workload, and that may matter if this becomes another long night.

Odds

Odds:

To Win Match

Total Games

32.5

Looking for data?

Check form, surface stats for current and past seasons.

Compare H2H form, detailed H2H stats & match history.

ATP Rankings

Full List
  • 1Jannik Sinner
    14750
  • 2Carlos Alcaraz
    11960
  • 3Alexander Zverev
    5705
  • 4Novak Djokovic
    4460
  • 5Ben Shelton
    4070
  • 6Felix Auger-Aliassime
    4050
  • 7Alex de Minaur
    3855
  • 8Daniil Medvedev
    3760
  • 9Taylor Fritz
    3720
  • 10Alexander Bublik
    3320

WTA Rankings

Full List
  • 1Aryna Sabalenka
    9090
  • 2Elena Rybakina
    8143
  • 3Iga Swiatek
    6733
  • 4Jessica Pegula
    6056
  • 5Amanda Anisimova
    5848
  • 6Mirra Andreeva
    5751
  • 7Coco Gauff
    4879
  • 8Elina Svitolina
    4315
  • 9Victoria Mboko
    3670
  • 10Karolina Muchova
    3438