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Aryna Sabalenka meets Iva Jovic in the Australian Open quarter-finals on hard courts on 27 January, with a best-of-three place in the semi-finals at stake.
This is the second week, and matches tend to get complicated as the finish line comes into view. Below is how to follow it live, plus what the season numbers, last-10 trends and the market suggest about where the pressure points will sit.FINISHED
Sabalenka A.
Jovic I.
6-3
, 6-0
On hard courts this season, Sabalenka is 9–0 and has already collected a title. Her service games won rate sits at 86%, a clear marker of control, even if Jovic’s return numbers suggest she will ask tougher questions than most.
Sabalenka has gone 9–1 across her last 10 matches and wins the opening set 90% of the time, which matters in a short, best-of-three format. Jovic is 8–2 in the same span and has won 55% of return games, so she has shown she can turn matches into break-heavy contests when she gets a read on the serve.
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Bookmakers price Sabalenka at 1.14 against Jovic at 5.5; first-set prices are 1.25 versus 4. The numbers point to a straightforward favourite, while the second-week setting still encourages caution.
Sabalenka A.
Jovic I.
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This match shapes as a tug-of-war between Sabalenka’s ability to protect serve and Jovic’s knack for creating chances, with the return figures hinting at frequent pressure games. The workload is not wildly different either, with Sabalenka at 4 hours 46 minutes across her last three matches and Jovic at 3 hours 54 minutes, so energy management should be a subplot rather than a headline. If Sabalenka lands her usual early-set level, Jovic’s path likely runs through sustained returning and clean break-point work.
Prediction
Aryna Sabalenka
Iva Jovic
Overall indicators tilt towards Aryna Sabalenka: the market is firmly on her side and her hard-court season profile, led by an 86% hold rate, is hard to ignore. Iva Jovic’s returning numbers keep the door ajar, especially in the second week, but Sabalenka’s stronger starting trend in recent matches gives her the clearer route.
Odds
