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ATP/Doha ATP/Semi-finals

Alcaraz v Rublev live stream and where to watch in Doha ATP semi-finals

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Feb 19, 2026(..)

Carlos Alcaraz meets Andrey Rublev in the Doha ATP semi-finals on hard courts on 20 February, a best-of-three contest with a guide to watch or follow live.

Alcaraz is world number one and arrives unbeaten on hard courts this year, while Rublev has also enjoyed a strong week in Doha. Their rivalry has mostly tilted one way on this court, but Rublev has shown he can flip the script when he finds his timing.

FINISHED

Alcaraz C.

2
0

Rublev A.

7-6

, 6-4

Alcaraz has owned the hard-court rivalry

Alcaraz leads their series 4-1, and he is 3-0 in their hard-court meetings, with two straight-set victories in Turin (indoor) alongside a three-set win in Cincinnati. Rublev's lone success came on clay in Madrid on 1 May 2024, edging a 2-1 quarter-final. On hard courts, the meetings have generally been tighter than the overall series suggests, averaging 24.3 games.

Alcaraz C.

Rublev A.

Wins
4 1
First Serve Points Won
78 %73 %
Second Serve Points Won
61 %51 %
Return Points Won
34 %27 %
Break Points Converted
40 %32 %
Break Points Saved
68 %60 %

Alcaraz's perfect start sets the bar

Alcaraz is 10-0 on hard courts this season and already has an ATP trophy, a sharp early statement at the top of the sport. Rublev is 7-2, so the volume is solid, but the efficiency points slightly Alcaraz's way with a 92% hold rate and a 28% return-games mark. Rublev has been more ruthless on key points at times, converting 48% of break chances, yet he is likely to see fewer of them here.

Carlos Alcaraz v. Andrey Rublev Live Streaming

Want to catch the match live? Our top pick is bet365. It's hands-down our favorite way to follow the whole tennis season. Just keep in mind a few rules: you need to be over 18 and have a funded account to access the stream. Also, geo-restrictions do apply, so make sure to double-check that the match is available in your region before signing up.

Rublev is clean in Doha, Alcaraz keeps rolling

Alcaraz has won 10 in a row, a run that includes his Australian Open title, and he has handled Doha's week well despite being pushed to three sets by Karen Khachanov in the quarter-finals. Rublev is 7-3 across his last 10 outings and has reached this semi-final without dropping a set, including a 2-0 win over Stefanos Tsitsipas. The first-set trend is close enough to matter, though, with Alcaraz taking 80% of openers compared with Rublev's 70%.

Alcaraz C.

Rublev A.

Win Percentage
100 %70 %
Titles
1 0
Aces per match
6.5 6.4
Double Faults per match
2 1.7
First Serve Points Won
75 %77 %
Second Serve Points Won
60 %55 %
Return Points Won
40 %36 %
Break Points Converted
38 %48 %
Break Points Saved
73 %75 %

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Prices position Alcaraz as the clear favourite

Bookmakers price Alcaraz at 1.13 against Rublev at 4.88, underlining the gap in expectation going into the semi-final. The opening set is framed similarly, with Alcaraz at 1.23 and Rublev at 3.95.

Pressure on Rublev's second serve could decide it

Across their previous meetings, Alcaraz has protected serve more securely, holding 91% of the time compared with Rublev's 80%, and that has allowed him to play with freedom on return. He has also generated more chances, averaging 7 break-point looks per clash to Rublev's 3.8, so short dips can be costly. The workload angle is worth a glance too: Alcaraz has logged 14 hours 23 minutes across his last five matches, while Rublev is at 9 hours 4 minutes, and both are coming off back-to-back days.

Prediction

Doha ATPPICK

Carlos Alcaraz

85%
Predicted Winner

Andrey Rublev

The indicators tilt towards Carlos Alcaraz: the pricing is heavily in his favour and he has a 3-0 edge over Andrey Rublev on hard courts, backed by a perfect 10-0 run on the surface this season. Rublev's straight-sets route through Doha keeps the threat level real, but Alcaraz's return pressure has consistently given him more control in this match-up.

Odds

Odds:

To Win Match

Total Games

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ATP Rankings

Full List
  • 1Jannik Sinner
    14750
  • 2Carlos Alcaraz
    11960
  • 3Alexander Zverev
    5705
  • 4Novak Djokovic
    4460
  • 5Ben Shelton
    4070
  • 6Felix Auger-Aliassime
    4050
  • 7Alex de Minaur
    3855
  • 8Daniil Medvedev
    3760
  • 9Taylor Fritz
    3720
  • 10Alexander Bublik
    3320

WTA Rankings

Full List
  • 1Aryna Sabalenka
    9090
  • 2Elena Rybakina
    8143
  • 3Iga Swiatek
    6733
  • 4Jessica Pegula
    6056
  • 5Amanda Anisimova
    5848
  • 6Mirra Andreeva
    5751
  • 7Coco Gauff
    4879
  • 8Elina Svitolina
    4315
  • 9Victoria Mboko
    3670
  • 10Karolina Muchova
    3438