The Best Tennis Stats.
Our new tennis stats site is live!
Carlos Alcaraz meets Andrey Rublev in the Doha ATP semi-finals on hard courts on 20 February, a best-of-three contest with a guide to watch or follow live.
Alcaraz is world number one and arrives unbeaten on hard courts this year, while Rublev has also enjoyed a strong week in Doha. Their rivalry has mostly tilted one way on this court, but Rublev has shown he can flip the script when he finds his timing.FINISHED

Alcaraz C.

Rublev A.
7-6
, 6-4
Alcaraz leads their series 4-1, and he is 3-0 in their hard-court meetings, with two straight-set victories in Turin (indoor) alongside a three-set win in Cincinnati. Rublev's lone success came on clay in Madrid on 1 May 2024, edging a 2-1 quarter-final. On hard courts, the meetings have generally been tighter than the overall series suggests, averaging 24.3 games.

Alcaraz C.
Rublev A.

Alcaraz is 10-0 on hard courts this season and already has an ATP trophy, a sharp early statement at the top of the sport. Rublev is 7-2, so the volume is solid, but the efficiency points slightly Alcaraz's way with a 92% hold rate and a 28% return-games mark. Rublev has been more ruthless on key points at times, converting 48% of break chances, yet he is likely to see fewer of them here.
Want to catch the match live? Our top pick is bet365. It's hands-down our favorite way to follow the whole tennis season. Just keep in mind a few rules: you need to be over 18 and have a funded account to access the stream. Also, geo-restrictions do apply, so make sure to double-check that the match is available in your region before signing up.
Alcaraz has won 10 in a row, a run that includes his Australian Open title, and he has handled Doha's week well despite being pushed to three sets by Karen Khachanov in the quarter-finals. Rublev is 7-3 across his last 10 outings and has reached this semi-final without dropping a set, including a 2-0 win over Stefanos Tsitsipas. The first-set trend is close enough to matter, though, with Alcaraz taking 80% of openers compared with Rublev's 70%.

Alcaraz C.
Rublev A.

The Best Tennis Stats.
Our new tennis stats site is live!
Bookmakers price Alcaraz at 1.13 against Rublev at 4.88, underlining the gap in expectation going into the semi-final. The opening set is framed similarly, with Alcaraz at 1.23 and Rublev at 3.95.
Across their previous meetings, Alcaraz has protected serve more securely, holding 91% of the time compared with Rublev's 80%, and that has allowed him to play with freedom on return. He has also generated more chances, averaging 7 break-point looks per clash to Rublev's 3.8, so short dips can be costly. The workload angle is worth a glance too: Alcaraz has logged 14 hours 23 minutes across his last five matches, while Rublev is at 9 hours 4 minutes, and both are coming off back-to-back days.
Prediction
Carlos Alcaraz
Andrey Rublev
The indicators tilt towards Carlos Alcaraz: the pricing is heavily in his favour and he has a 3-0 edge over Andrey Rublev on hard courts, backed by a perfect 10-0 run on the surface this season. Rublev's straight-sets route through Doha keeps the threat level real, but Alcaraz's return pressure has consistently given him more control in this match-up.
Odds





