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Alcaraz v Djokovic Australian Open final preview and where to watch

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Jan 30, 2026(..)

Carlos Alcaraz meets Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open final on hard courts on 1 Feb 2026, with a best-of-five showdown that could swing on early momentum and stamina.

Djokovic arrives with a deep Melbourne record and a narrow edge in their rivalry, while Alcaraz comes in as the top seed and the market favourite. Below is the match breakdown, plus details on how to watch or follow the final live.

FINISHED

Alcaraz C.

3
1

Djokovic N.

2-6

, 6-2

, 6-3

, 7-5

Djokovic’s hard-court edge in a tight rivalry

Novak Djokovic leads 5-4 overall and has been stronger on hard courts, taking three of their four meetings on the surface. Their most recent clash here came in January 2025, when Djokovic won 3-1, and the last time they met in a final was the 2024 Olympics on clay, also won by Djokovic.

Alcaraz C.

Djokovic N.

Wins
4 5
First Serve Points Won
70 %68 %
Second Serve Points Won
48 %55 %
Return Points Won
37 %37 %
Break Points Converted
27 %34 %
Break Points Saved
66 %73 %

Unbeaten runs, with Alcaraz creating more pressure

Both men are perfect on hard courts this season, with Carlos Alcaraz 6-0 and Novak Djokovic 5-0, so the margins look fine. Alcaraz’s season numbers hint at slightly firmer control of points, holding serve 91% of the time and winning 30% of return games, while Djokovic’s standout has been resilience under heat, saving breaks at 76%.

Where to watch Carlos Alcaraz v. Novak Djokovic Live

By signing up at bet365, you gain access to one of the most reliable live streaming services available for this match and the rest of the tennis season. Access requires a funded account and is limited to users 18+. Be aware that geo-restrictions apply, so verify the schedule for your specific location.

Alcaraz sharper lately, Djokovic slower out of the blocks

Alcaraz has gone 9-1 across his last 10 matches and has been quick to impose himself, winning the opening set 80% of the time.

Djokovic is 7-3 in that same span and his first-set rate sits at 30%, yet his route to the final has been efficient at times, including an advanced via walkover and a five-set semi-final win over Jannik Sinner.

Alcaraz C.

Djokovic N.

Win Percentage
90 %90 %
Titles
0 1
Aces per match
6.3 8.8
Double Faults per match
1.6 2.3
First Serve Points Won
75 %76 %
Second Serve Points Won
59 %55 %
Return Points Won
40 %39 %
Break Points Converted
40 %40 %
Break Points Saved
71 %72 %

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Bookmakers make Alcaraz a clear favourite

Bookmakers price Carlos Alcaraz at 1.3 against Novak Djokovic at 3.5; first-set prices are 1.5 versus 2.63. The numbers point to Alcaraz starting fast, but the head-to-head and Djokovic’s record in Melbourne keep the outcome from feeling settled.

Workload versus know-how over five sets

This final sets Alcaraz’s recent serving efficiency against Djokovic’s ability to absorb pressure and turn long stretches, a dynamic that has regularly produced heavy scorelines between them.

There is also a physical angle: Alcaraz has logged 10 hours 22 minutes across his last three matches compared with Djokovic’s 6 hours 13 minutes, so managing the fifth-set scenario could matter. Djokovic has won the Australian Open 10 times, while this is Alcaraz’s first final here, and that contrast may show up most when the match tightens late.

Prediction

Australian Open ATPPICK

Carlos Alcaraz

58%
Predicted Winner

Novak Djokovic

Overall indicators tilt slightly towards Carlos Alcaraz, with the market firmly behind him and his recent form showing cleaner starts and a higher hold rate on hard courts this season. Novak Djokovic’s head-to-head edge on the surface and his long history of winning in Melbourne are real counters, though, especially if it stretches deep into a fifth set. The lean is narrow, and the workload factor adds a late-match wrinkle.

Odds

Odds:

To Win Match

Total Games

32.5

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ATP Rankings

Full List
  • 1Jannik Sinner
    14750
  • 2Carlos Alcaraz
    11960
  • 3Alexander Zverev
    5705
  • 4Novak Djokovic
    4460
  • 5Ben Shelton
    4070
  • 6Felix Auger-Aliassime
    4050
  • 7Alex de Minaur
    3855
  • 8Daniil Medvedev
    3760
  • 9Taylor Fritz
    3720
  • 10Alexander Bublik
    3320

WTA Rankings

Full List
  • 1Aryna Sabalenka
    9090
  • 2Elena Rybakina
    8143
  • 3Iga Swiatek
    6733
  • 4Jessica Pegula
    6056
  • 5Amanda Anisimova
    5848
  • 6Mirra Andreeva
    5751
  • 7Coco Gauff
    4879
  • 8Elina Svitolina
    4315
  • 9Victoria Mboko
    3670
  • 10Karolina Muchova
    3438