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Carlos Alcaraz meets Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open final on hard courts on 1 Feb 2026, with a best-of-five showdown that could swing on early momentum and stamina.
Djokovic arrives with a deep Melbourne record and a narrow edge in their rivalry, while Alcaraz comes in as the top seed and the market favourite. Below is the match breakdown, plus details on how to watch or follow the final live.FINISHED

Alcaraz C.

Djokovic N.
2-6
, 6-2
, 6-3
, 7-5
Novak Djokovic leads 5-4 overall and has been stronger on hard courts, taking three of their four meetings on the surface. Their most recent clash here came in January 2025, when Djokovic won 3-1, and the last time they met in a final was the 2024 Olympics on clay, also won by Djokovic.

Alcaraz C.
Djokovic N.

Both men are perfect on hard courts this season, with Carlos Alcaraz 6-0 and Novak Djokovic 5-0, so the margins look fine. Alcaraz’s season numbers hint at slightly firmer control of points, holding serve 91% of the time and winning 30% of return games, while Djokovic’s standout has been resilience under heat, saving breaks at 76%.
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Alcaraz has gone 9-1 across his last 10 matches and has been quick to impose himself, winning the opening set 80% of the time.
Djokovic is 7-3 in that same span and his first-set rate sits at 30%, yet his route to the final has been efficient at times, including an advanced via walkover and a five-set semi-final win over Jannik Sinner.
Alcaraz C.
Djokovic N.

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Bookmakers price Carlos Alcaraz at 1.3 against Novak Djokovic at 3.5; first-set prices are 1.5 versus 2.63. The numbers point to Alcaraz starting fast, but the head-to-head and Djokovic’s record in Melbourne keep the outcome from feeling settled.
This final sets Alcaraz’s recent serving efficiency against Djokovic’s ability to absorb pressure and turn long stretches, a dynamic that has regularly produced heavy scorelines between them.
There is also a physical angle: Alcaraz has logged 10 hours 22 minutes across his last three matches compared with Djokovic’s 6 hours 13 minutes, so managing the fifth-set scenario could matter. Djokovic has won the Australian Open 10 times, while this is Alcaraz’s first final here, and that contrast may show up most when the match tightens late.Prediction
Carlos Alcaraz
Novak Djokovic
Overall indicators tilt slightly towards Carlos Alcaraz, with the market firmly behind him and his recent form showing cleaner starts and a higher hold rate on hard courts this season. Novak Djokovic’s head-to-head edge on the surface and his long history of winning in Melbourne are real counters, though, especially if it stretches deep into a fifth set. The lean is narrow, and the workload factor adds a late-match wrinkle.
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