Alcaraz v Paul: where to watch and Australian Open last-16 preview

Carlos Alcaraz faces Tommy Paul in the Australian Open last 16 on hard courts on 25 January, with a best-of-five test and a quarter-final place on the line.

This preview also explains how to follow the match live, and why the early-season numbers, the head-to-head and the market all matter in this match-up. With only the third week of 2026 under way, small samples can still mislead, so the pressure points feel especially important.

Hard-court series locked at 2-2

Alcaraz leads the rivalry 5-2 overall, but their hard-court meetings are level at 2-2, a reminder that Paul has found ways to keep it close on this surface. The numbers also hint at long stretches: the hard-court match-ups have averaged 29.5 games, with five tie-breaks across their meetings.

Their most recent clash came at the French Open in June 2025, where Alcaraz won in straight sets, while their last hard-court meeting was Montreal in August 2022, a 2-1 win for Paul.

Early hard-court returns still forming

It is a thin 2026 sample, but Alcaraz is 3-0 on hard courts while Paul has played more, going 5-2. Paul has held serve every time this season on hard courts, yet his return numbers sit at 6%, so a lot of his success has started with protecting his own delivery.

Alcaraz's break-point work has been tidy too, saving 67% and converting 50%, which can swing tight games in a best-of-five match.

Where to watch Carlos Alcaraz v. Tommy Paul Live

For reliable live streaming of this match, we recommend signing up with bet365. Please note that this service is strictly for users aged 18+ who maintain a funded account. Due to broadcasting rights, geo-restrictions may apply, so we advise checking the schedule to confirm availability in your location. In our experience, this is the premier option for watching the entire tennis season.

Both arrive 7-3 over the last 10

The recent records are identical at 7-3, but the shape differs in a few key moments. Paul has won 80% of first sets in that run, while Alcaraz is at 70%, so the American has tended to start fast even when matches tighten later. Alcaraz holds a small edge on recent return impact, winning 21% of return games compared with 17%, and he comes in off three straight-sets wins in Melbourne.

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Bookmakers make Alcaraz a clear favourite

Bookmakers price Alcaraz at 1.08 against Paul at 8, with first-set prices 1.22 versus 4.33. That gap reflects Alcaraz's status as world number one, even if the head-to-head on hard courts has been more balanced than the headline record.

Fast starts versus sustained pressure

Paul's best route is to keep serving cleanly and try to bank early sets, because the recent first-set trend leans his way and the hard-court match-up has often stretched. Alcaraz, though, brings the broader edge: the overall head-to-head is in his favour, the market is emphatic, and the recent return numbers suggest he is more likely to create repeat looks at break points. There is also a workload wrinkle, with Alcaraz logging 7 hours 1 minute across his last three matches compared with Paul's 4 hours 33, which may become relevant if this turns into a long night.

Prediction

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