Medvedev v Tien: where to watch and the key angles for Australian Open last 16

Daniil Medvedev meets Learner Tien in the Australian Open's last 16 on hard courts on 25 January, a best-of-five test with a place in the quarter-finals on the line.

Medvedev comes in ranked 12th and priced as the favourite, but Tien has already shown he can push him deep at this tournament. With the second week in full swing, every match feels more complicated than the one before. This preview breaks down the form and matchup, and explains how to watch or follow the contest live.

Tien's 2-1 edge in recent meetings

Tien has won two of the last three completed meetings on hard courts, including a five-set victory at the Australian Open in January 2025. The wider pattern has been tight: their matchups have averaged 29.8 games, with five tie-breaks, so small swings in key moments have tended to decide it.

Medvedev's clean hard-court slate

Medvedev is 8-0 on hard courts this season and has already collected one ATP title, backing up the sense of a steady start to the year. He has held 84% of service games and won 40% on return, numbers that point to sustained pressure across long matches.

Tien is 4-1 on the surface, converting break points at 52%, but his return-games win rate sits at 29%, which can be a tough base over five sets.

Daniil Medvedev v. Learner Tien Live Streaming

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Both arrive 8-2, but starts differ

Their last-10 records are identical at 8-2, yet the shape of those runs is not: Medvedev has won 60% of first sets, while Tien is at 40%. Medvedev's recent return figure is also higher (39% to 32%), even if Tien has been the better closer in deciding sets, winning 83% compared with Medvedev's 67%.

The workload angle is real too: Medvedev has spent 9 hours 45 minutes on court across his last three matches, compared with 7 hours 54 minutes for Tien.

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Bookmakers shade Medvedev

Bookmakers price Medvedev at 1.44 against Tien at 2.75; first-set prices sit at 1.62 versus 2.3. Still, with both men now deep into the second week, there is a note of caution that momentum can shift quickly in this part of the tournament.

Second-serve margins could decide it

In their head-to-heads, Medvedev has produced far more aces per match (12.7 to 4.3), but he has also averaged 7 double faults, a leak that can hand away free points at the wrong time. Tien's edge has often come in the secondary exchanges: he has won 53% of second-serve points in their meetings and converted 53% of break points, figures that fit the way their matches have swung on pressure games. Medvedev's broader hard-court return numbers are stronger this season, which is why he still carries the favourite tag. If it drifts into a deciding set again, though, Tien's recent record in those moments suggests he will not flinch.

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