Jovic backed by form before Alexandrova clash

Ekaterina Alexandrova faces Iva Jovic in the Wimbledon WTA 1/16-finals on 3 July, with the grass-court match played over best of three sets.

Alexandrova has the only previous win between them, but the wider numbers lean towards Jovic. Her recent form, return strength and market position all make this a difficult test for the higher-profile opponent.

Alexandrova holds the narrow rivalry lead

Alexandrova leads the match-up 1-0 after beating Jovic 2-1 at the US Open on 28 August 2024. That meeting went to 32 games, so the only direct evidence points to a tight contest rather than a simple match-up pattern.

Her serve did more damage that day, with nine aces and 74% of first-serve points won, but she also faced heavy pressure. Jovic still found enough return chances to keep the match close.

Grass form gives Jovic a clearer route

Jovic has gone 5-1 on grass this season, while Alexandrova is 5-3. The gap is not huge, but Jovic’s 44% return games won on the surface is the key number because it suggests she can put pressure on service games even in quick conditions.

Alexandrova’s grass serve has been solid at 78% of service games won. Even so, Jovic’s stronger return profile makes the match feel less dependent on one or two service swings.

Recent results also favour Jovic

Jovic is 6-4 across her last 10 matches, compared with Alexandrova’s 5-5. Both have won the first set in 60% of those matches, so the early phase may not be as one-sided as the odds suggest.

The bigger recent difference is on return. Jovic has won 40% of return games in that spell, while Alexandrova sits at 30%, giving Jovic the stronger all-round profile.

Bookmakers make Jovic the favourite

Bookmakers price Jovic at 1.44 against Alexandrova at 2.75, with the first-set prices also leaning towards Jovic at 1.53 against 2.5. That market view matches the recent and grass-court numbers, even if the previous meeting went Alexandrova’s way.

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Return pressure may decide the match

Alexandrova’s best route is clear: protect her serve, take the first strike when she can, and use the confidence of that previous win. But Jovic brings the steadier current profile, with stronger recent return numbers and a lighter recent workload of 4 hours 9 minutes across her last five matches, compared with 7 hours 55 minutes for Alexandrova.

That does not settle the match. It does, however, add another small edge to Jovic’s side of the argument.

Prediction

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