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Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard meets Sebastian Baez in the Australian Open opening round on hard courts on 20 Jan 2026, with a best-of-five test and live coverage options to track.
With the 2026 season only in its third week, early trends matter but come with a health warning. This preview sets out the key form lines and what the odds are saying, plus how to watch or follow the match live.FINISHED
Mpetshi Perricard G.
Baez S.
4-6
, 4-6
, 6-3
, 7-5
, 3-6
Baez comes in with a 7-1 record on hard courts this season, while Mpetshi Perricard is 4-2. The underlying split is clear: Mpetshi Perricard has held 94% of service games, but Baez has paired an 81% hold rate with 31% return games won and a 48% break-point conversion rate, which can swing momentum quickly in longer matches.
Across the last 10 matches, Mpetshi Perricard is 4-6 and Baez is 7-3. The contrast is stark: Mpetshi Perricard is averaging 17.7 aces per match but has won just 20% of opening sets, while Baez has been more balanced and recently reached the Auckland final, where he lost to Jakub Mensik.
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Bookmakers price Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard at 1.67 against Sebastian Baez at 2.2; the first-set prices are 1.73 versus 2.1. That slight lean sits against Baez's stronger recent results, which is why this match looks more nuanced than a simple favourite-and-underdog read.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
Baez S.
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Over five sets, Mpetshi Perricard's high hold rate and heavy ace numbers can keep sets tight even when he is not starting fast. Baez's edge is the ability to apply pressure on return and convert chances, and that profile can become more valuable as matches stretch.
Workload looks similar too, with both having logged around eight and a half to nine hours across their last five matches, so the outcome may hinge more on who wins the key return games than who serves bigger.Prediction
Sebastian Baez
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Overall indicators tilt slightly towards Sebastian Baez, despite Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard being narrowly shorter in the match odds. Baez has the stronger recent record and the clearer return-and-conversion edge, which can be decisive in a best-of-five opener even if Perricard's serve keeps large parts of it close.
Odds
