Sinner looks to extend unbeaten grass streak in quarter-finals

Jannik Sinner and Jan-Lennard Struff meet in the Wimbledon quarter-finals on 7 July, a best-of-five encounter on grass. The world number one is a heavy favourite against the German, priced at 1.04 to win. Past meetings, current form and market confidence all point decisively in one direction, but Struff's run to this stage suggests he will not go quietly.

Sinner's 3-0 grip on the rivalry

Sinner has won all three previous meetings against Struff, dropping just one set in the process. Their only grass-court clash came at Halle in 2024, a quarter-final that Sinner took in three sets. Across their encounters, Sinner has won 43 games to Struff's 28, an average of 23.7 total games per match. Sinner has also won the only deciding set they have played. The world number one saves break points at 80% in this match-up and converts 27% of his chances, numbers that suggest he handles Struff's serve and pressure points effectively.

Sinner J.

Struff J-L.

Wins

3 0

First Serve Points Won

85 %70 %

Second Serve Points Won

61 %49 %

Return Points Won

38 %24 %

Break Points Converted

27 %20 %

Break Points Saved

80 %73 %

Grass numbers point to Sinner

On grass this season, Sinner is unbeaten with four wins from four. He holds serve 93% of the time and converts 40% of break points. Struff has a 6-2 record on the surface, but his return game lags considerably at 13% of games won. That gap is significant against Sinner, who wins 24% of return games. Struff's serving numbers are solid at 88% of games held, yet the Italian's ability to apply consistent pressure on second serves could be the defining factor. While both players have played just over 15 hours in their last five matches, Sinner's more efficient path through the draw leaves him with slightly fresher legs.

Recent momentum heavily favours Sinner

Sinner arrives with nine wins in his last ten matches, the only loss coming on clay against Juan Manuel Cerundolo at the French Open. He has won his last seven in a row, all in straight sets except a five-setter against Kecmanovic. Struff has seven wins in his last ten, but the sequence is patchier, with losses to Bublik and Borges on grass. The German has won his last four matches at Wimbledon, including a retirement win over Hurkacz. Yet Sinner's first-set win rate of 90% in this sample is a stark contrast to Struff's 40%. Early breaks have become a hallmark of the Italian's recent wins, which puts immediate pressure on the underdog.

Market sees one-way traffic

Bookmakers price Sinner at 1.04 to win the match, with Struff out at 13. The first-set market echoes this, with Sinner at 1.13 and his opponent at 6. This is the widest spread of the tournament for a quarter-final, reflecting the gulf in rankings, form and history. The odds imply that only an extraordinary performance from Struff or an off day from the world number one would change the outcome.

Sinner J.

Struff J-L.

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Struff's serve must fire from the start

For Struff to be competitive, his first serve percentage needs to climb above his average of 59% against Sinner, as his second serve points won drops to 49%. He has the weapons to win free points, averaging 16.7 aces in his last ten matches. However, Sinner's return game is sharp on grass, winning 28% of return games. The Italian's movement and ability to redirect pace neutralise big serving, which has been evident in their previous meetings. Struff will also need to improve his break-point conversion, currently at 39%, against a player who saves 72% of break points on grass this season. The data suggests Struff will have his moments on serve, but sustaining that level across five sets against the most consistent player on tour is a formidable ask.

Prediction

Odds