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Jessica Pegula meets Amanda Anisimova in the Australian Open quarter-finals on hard courts on 28 January, with a best-of-three place in the last four on the line.
Alongside the match preview, this guide covers how to follow the action live. The market leans towards Anisimova, but Pegula’s head-to-head record and her recent returning numbers keep the balance tense in the second week, when every match gets complicated.FINISHED
Pegula J.
Anisimova A.
6-2
, 7-6
Pegula has won all three previous meetings, and two of them have gone the distance, a sign this matchup can turn on a few points. Their most recent clash was the Toronto WTA final on 12 Aug 2024, where Pegula came through 2-1, and the average match length in this series has been 25.3 games.
The underlying pattern is clear too: Pegula has won a higher share of both first-serve points and return points across these meetings, while Anisimova’s double-fault rate has been notably heavier.Pegula J.
Anisimova A.
Both players have started the season well on hard courts, with Pegula at 7-1 and Anisimova at 5-1, so there is little margin in the win-loss picture. The separator is on return: Pegula’s return games won rate is 44% on the surface, compared with 40% for Anisimova, which can matter in a quarter-final where service holds are rarely comfortable.
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Pegula is 8-2 across her last 10 matches and she has been starting quickly, winning 80% of first sets, which can take air out of tight matches. Anisimova is 7-3 in the same span and has held serve at a similar rate, but her return numbers have been lighter at 33%, and the double-fault count is higher. Those small drifts can become big on hard courts when points are short and scorelines move fast.
Pegula J.
Anisimova A.
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Bookmakers price Anisimova at 1.73 against Pegula at 2.1, and the first-set prices mirror that at 1.73 versus 2.1. It is a clear lean rather than a landslide, which fits a second-week quarter-final where form and nerves can swing the match quickly.
The match shapes as a tug-of-war between Anisimova’s strong service numbers this season and Pegula’s ability to apply return pressure when rallies tighten. Pegula also arrives with a slightly lighter recent workload, at 5 hours 29 minutes across her last five matches compared with 7 hours 2 minutes for Anisimova, and that can matter if it stretches into a third set. With the market expecting a battle and the head-to-head pointing one way, the first few service games may set the tone for everything that follows.
Prediction
Jessica Pegula
Amanda Anisimova
Overall indicators tilt slightly towards Jessica Pegula: she is 3-0 in the head-to-head, her recent returning and first-set strike rate have been stronger, and her last-five workload has been lighter. Amanda Anisimova is rightly respected by the market at 1.73, but in the second week the steadier base can be decisive if the match tightens late.
Odds
