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Jessica Pegula meets McCartney Kessler in the Australian Open round of 32 on hard courts on 22 January, with the women set for a best-of-three contest.
This preview breaks down the key numbers, the head-to-head, and what the odds suggest, with the season still in its opening weeks. You'll also find how to watch or follow the match live, alongside the main themes that could decide it.FINISHED
Pegula J.
Kessler M.
6-0
, 6-2
They have played once, and Pegula won it 2-0 in the Austin WTA final on 02 Mar 2025. That match ran to 20 games, with Pegula taking 13 of them, and it set an early reference point for how this match-up can swing when pressure rises.
Pegula J.
Kessler M.
On hard courts this season Pegula is 4-1, while Kessler is 2-2, a reminder that the evidence base is still small in week three of the year. Break-point numbers are close, but not identical: Pegula has saved 56% and converted 37%, while Kessler has saved 52% and converted 41%.
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Over their last 10 matches Pegula is 6-4 and Kessler is 5-5, so neither arrives with an overwhelming run. Kessler has held serve more often (75% of service games) but Pegula has won more return games (39% to 33%), which can matter on the biggest points. If it stretches, Pegula's deciding-set record in that spell is stronger at 60% compared with Kessler's 33%.
Pegula J.
Kessler M.
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Bookmakers price Pegula at 1.22 against Kessler at 4.33; the first-set prices are 1.33 versus 3.4. It is a firm view from the market, even with the season only just settling into shape.
Pegula comes in as the higher-ranked player, sitting at world number 6 to Kessler's 36, and the match-up history hints at why. In their lone meeting, Kessler's serve came under sustained strain, with a lower service-games-won rate and a heavier double-fault count, while Pegula created more break chances and converted at 60%. Workload is not screaming in either direction, but Kessler has logged 4 hours 46 minutes across the last three matches to Pegula's 3 hours 54 minutes, a small note if the rallies get long.
Prediction
Jessica Pegula
McCartney Kessler
Overall indicators tilt towards Jessica Pegula, with the market making her a clear favourite and the only head-to-head meeting ending in a straight-sets win. Recent results are fairly close, but Pegula's stronger return numbers and steadier record in deciding sets add weight on hard courts. With the season still new, there is room for volatility, yet the balance of evidence points her way.
Odds
