Clay workload and market view strengthen Buse case

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: May 6, 2026(..)

Lorenzo Sonego faces Ignacio Buse in the 1/64-finals at Rome ATP on 7 May, with the clay-court match played over best of three sets.

The market leans towards Buse, and the recent clay pattern supports that view. Sonego has home familiarity in Rome, but his latest results leave him needing a sharper serving day and cleaner pressure-point execution.

FINISHED

Sonego L.

Buse I.

3-6

, 3-6

Buse owns the broader clay base

Buse brings the heavier clay record this season, standing at 8-8 compared with Sonego's 1-3. That matters because Buse has also held 77% of his service games on the surface, a stronger platform than Sonego's 70%, even if Sonego has been slightly more productive on return.

Recent momentum favours Buse narrowly

Sonego has lost three in a row, all on clay, since beating Pedro Martinez in Barcelona. Buse is only 4-6 across his last 10, but he has won three of his last five clay matches and his 70% first-set win rate suggests he has been starting matches with more authority.

Bookmakers make Buse the clearer pick

Bookmakers price Buse at 1.57 against Sonego at 2.38, with first-set prices also leaning Buse at 1.62 to 2.3. The gap is not overwhelming, but it is clear enough to frame Buse as the player expected to control more of the match.

Sonego needs return pressure to bite

The match looks likely to turn on whether Sonego can make Buse defend enough second-serve points and extend service games. His return numbers offer a route, but Buse's stronger hold rate and better recent starts reduce the margin for a slow opening. Workload does not create a major split, with both players carrying similar court time over their last five matches.

Sonego L.

Buse I.

Win Percentage

40 %40 %

Aces per match

5.5 4.9

Double Faults per match

1.7 2.4

First Serve Points Won

70 %72 %

Second Serve Points Won

49 %46 %

Return Points Won

36 %37 %

Break Points Converted

37 %38 %

Break Points Saved

66 %58 %

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Prediction

Rome ATPPICK

Ignacio Buse

62%

Predicted Winner

Lorenzo Sonego

The data points towards Buse, mainly because the market view lines up with the stronger clay-season base and the better recent first-set pattern. Sonego has enough return quality to keep this competitive, but Buse looks slightly better placed to protect serve and set the terms early.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS