Jodar's clay control faces Arnaldi's Rome surge

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: May 9, 2026(..)

Matteo Arnaldi faces Rafael Jodar in the 1/16-finals of the Rome ATP on 10 May, a best-of-three clay meeting with a last-16 place at stake.

The market leans firmly towards Jodar, and his clay-season numbers support that view. Arnaldi, though, arrives with real momentum after seven straight wins, so this is not only a ranking-led contest.

FINISHED

Arnaldi M.

Jodar R.

1-6

, 6-4

, 3-6

Jodar's clay record sets the tone

Jodar has built the stronger clay profile this season, with 13 wins from 15 matches and an ATP title on the surface. His service hold rate of 86% gives him a useful platform, especially against an Arnaldi return game that has still been productive at 33% in clay matches.

Arnaldi's 8-5 clay record is respectable and includes a Challenger title. The gap is that Jodar has been winning more cleanly at this level, with his ATP matches averaging 20.3 total games compared with Arnaldi's 25.9.

Arnaldi brings a seven-match surge

Arnaldi's recent run is the main counterweight. He has won seven in a row, including a final run in Cagliari and two victories already in Rome, so his confidence should not be understated.

Jodar's last-10 record is still slightly stronger at 8-2, and the shape of it is convincing. He has won the first set in 80% of those matches, while Arnaldi is at 40%, a difference that matters in a best-of-three format.

Market gives Jodar clear authority

Bookmakers price Jodar at 1.29 against Arnaldi at 3.75, with the first-set market also favouring Jodar at 1.36 against 3.2. That is a strong signal, but Arnaldi's current streak keeps the match from looking one-dimensional.

Serve stability may decide pressure points

The clearest on-court contrast is reliability behind serve. In their last 10 matches, Jodar has held 83% of service games and averaged only 1.7 double faults, while Arnaldi has held 75% and averaged 4.1 double faults.

Workload also adds a small caution around Arnaldi. He has spent 12 hours and 9 minutes on court across his last five matches, compared with 8 hours and 39 minutes for Jodar, which could matter if the rallies become physical.

Arnaldi M.

Jodar R.

Win Percentage

70 %80 %

Titles

1 0

Aces per match

3.5 3.6

Double Faults per match

4.1 1.7

First Serve Points Won

68 %71 %

Second Serve Points Won

52 %53 %

Return Points Won

41 %43 %

Break Points Converted

44 %41 %

Break Points Saved

63 %71 %

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Prediction

Rome ATPPICK

Rafael Jodar

67%

Predicted Winner

Matteo Arnaldi

The data points towards Rafael Jodar, mainly because his clay-season record, stronger service numbers and market position all line up. Matteo Arnaldi's seven-match winning streak makes him dangerous, but Jodar's first-set strength and lighter recent workload give him the more convincing route through.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS