Budkov Kjaer vs Opelka live stream and match preview for Australian Open first round

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Jan 17, 2026(..)

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer meets Reilly Opelka in the Australian Open first round on hard courts on 19 Jan, with a best-of-five contest offering an early-season marker for both men.

Opelka is priced as the favourite, but Budkov Kjaer arrives with match sharpness after a busy qualifying run. Below is the key form and tactical picture, plus how to watch or follow the match live.

FINISHED

Budkov Kjaer N.

Opelka R.

4-6

, 3-6

, 4-6

Early hard-court numbers come with a health warning

With the 2026 season only in its third week, the hard-court sample is thin and a little noisy. Budkov Kjaer is 3-1 on the surface so far, while Opelka is 2-2, and the margins behind those records can swing quickly in January.

Budkov Kjaer arrives match-ready, Opelka still settling

Budkov Kjaer has split his last 10 matches 5-5, yet the recent sequence is brighter: three straight wins in Australian Open qualifying, including a straight-sets final. Opelka is 3-7 across his last 10 and has mixed results in Australia this month, with a win over Alexei Popyrin but a straight-sets defeat to Tommy Paul.

How to watch Nicolai Budkov Kjaer v. Reilly Opelka Online

Want to catch the match live? Our top pick is bet365. It's hands-down our favorite way to follow the whole tennis season. Just keep in mind a few rules: you need to be over 18 and have a funded account to access the stream. Also, geo-restrictions do apply, so make sure to double-check that the match is available in your region before signing up.

Prices point to Opelka, even in the first set

Bookmakers price Reilly Opelka at 1.53 against Nicolai Budkov Kjaer at 2.5; first-set prices are 1.67 versus 2.2. That gap reflects trust in Opelka’s baseline level, even with the season still finding its rhythm.

Budkov Kjaer N.

Opelka R.

Win Percentage

50 %30 %

Aces per match

7.7 19.1

Double Faults per match

2.1 4.1

First Serve Points Won

69 %78 %

Second Serve Points Won

44 %52 %

Return Points Won

34 %25 %

Break Points Converted

50 %29 %

Break Points Saved

60 %69 %

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Serve dominance versus extended-match resilience

Opelka’s serve profile is the loudest theme: he averages 19 aces per match over his last 10, and his service games won rate sits at 87% in that spell, which can keep sets on a knife-edge.

Budkov Kjaer has created more give-and-take on return, winning 18% of return games in his last 10, but he has often started slowly, taking the first set only 10% of the time. In a best-of-five, workload is a small subplot too: Budkov Kjaer has logged 6 hours 24 minutes across his last three matches compared with Opelka’s 5 hours 10 minutes, and that may matter if this turns into a long, serve-led grind.

Prediction

Australian Open ATPPICK

Reilly Opelka

62%

Predicted Winner

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Overall indicators tilt towards Reilly Opelka: the market makes him a clear favourite and his serving numbers suggest he can protect sets more consistently over best-of-five. Nicolai Budkov Kjaer brings fresher match rhythm from qualifying and has the better last-10 record, but with the season only just underway the steadier serve-led profile looks the safer lean.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS