Grass record gives Collignon a real route against Fils

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Jun 27, 2026(..)

Raphael Collignon faces Arthur Fils in the first round of Wimbledon ATP on 30 June, with a grass-court, best-of-five match setting a clear early test.

Fils is ranked higher and carries the shorter price, but Collignon arrives with the more visible grass form. That contrast makes this a closer match-up than the rankings alone suggest.

Collignon brings the grass evidence

Collignon has gone 4-2 on grass this season, and his service numbers on the surface are strong. Winning 96% of his service games gives him a clear base, especially in a best-of-five match where cheap holds can change the feel of long sets.

Fils does not have available grass-season numbers here, so the safer reading is not that he lacks grass tools, but that Collignon brings the clearer surface proof.

Recent form keeps both in range

Collignon is 6-4 across his last 10, while Fils is 7-3 from his available recent run. The difference is small, but Fils has the cleaner win column and recently reached deep rounds on clay, including a final run in Barcelona and a semi-final in Madrid.

Collignon has also been busy on grass, with wins over Alexei Popyrin and Mattia Bellucci before defeats to Alexander Zverev and Juan Manuel Cerundolo. He is not cold. He is tested.

Bookmakers still side with Fils

Bookmakers price Fils at 1.73 against Collignon at 2.1, with first-set prices also leaning towards Fils at 1.8 against 2.0. The market sees Fils as the better overall player, but not by a wide margin.

Serve pressure may define the match

Collignon's recent serve has been a major strength, with 90% of service games won across his last 10 and 8.8 aces per match. Fils is close on service holds at 87%, but his recent edge is steadier match winning and a perfect deciding-set record from the data available.

Workload also matters a little. Collignon has spent 8 hours and 33 minutes on court across his last five matches, while Fils has logged 4 hours and 28 minutes, so the longer format may ask more of Collignon if sets stretch.

Collignon R.

Fils A.

Win Percentage

60 %80 %

Titles

0 1

Aces per match

8.8 2.3

Double Faults per match

4.7 2

First Serve Points Won

79 %76 %

Second Serve Points Won

50 %54 %

Return Points Won

33 %38 %

Break Points Converted

47 %36 %

Break Points Saved

70 %69 %

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Prediction

Wimbledon ATPPICK

Arthur Fils

56%

Predicted Winner

Raphael Collignon

The data points narrowly towards Fils, mainly because of the market view, the higher ranking and the stronger recent win rate. Collignon's grass serve numbers are a serious warning, so this is not a one-sided lean, but Fils has enough broader support to edge the prediction.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS