Baez v Mensik live stream: where to watch the Auckland ATP final

Analysis by Predict Tennis

Note: Written by humans, with the help of AI. Based on real statistical data.

Published: Jan 16, 2026(..)

Sebastian Baez meets Jakub Mensik in the Auckland ATP final on hard courts on 16 Jan 2026, with the best-of-three title match also offering plenty of options to watch or follow live.

This preview breaks down form, workload and what the market is saying, and it also explains how to watch or track the match as it happens. With the 2026 season only in its second week and the Australian Open looming, the early numbers carry extra context.

FINISHED

Baez S.

Mensik J.

3-6

, 6-7

Baez brings the cleaner hard-court start

Baez arrives with a 7-0 hard-court record this season, and his return work stands out at 31% of return games won. Mensik is 4-2 on the surface, with a lower 15% return-gaming clip, so he has leaned more heavily on holding serve. It is still very early in the year, though, and the calendar is already tilting towards the first Grand Slam of 2026 in Melbourne.

Mensik’s serve surge meets Baez’s run

Across the last 10 matches, Baez is 7-3 and has won seven in a row, including straight-sets victories over Brooksby J., Shelton B. and Giron M. in Auckland.

Mensik is 6-4 and has put together three straight wins at this event, finishing the semi-finals with a 2-1 win over Marozsan F. The recent serve numbers point in different directions: Mensik is averaging 12.1 aces per match, while Baez sits at 1.7.

Where to watch Sebastian Baez v. Jakub Mensik Live

By signing up at bet365, you gain access to one of the most reliable live streaming services available for this match and the rest of the tennis season. Access requires a funded account and is limited to users 18+. Be aware that geo-restrictions apply, so verify the schedule for your specific location.

Market makes Mensik the clear favourite

Bookmakers price Mensik at 1.4 against Baez at 3, a gap that reflects a clear lean in the pre-match view. The first-set prices follow the same pattern, with Mensik at 1.5 and Baez at 2.63.

Baez S.

Mensik J.

Win Percentage

70 %60 %

Aces per match

1.7 12.1

Double Faults per match

1.6 3.7

First Serve Points Won

60 %77 %

Second Serve Points Won

50 %51 %

Return Points Won

41 %39 %

Break Points Converted

47 %39 %

Break Points Saved

70 %63 %

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Fast starts and stamina could decide it

Mensik’s recent ability to protect serve, paired with his heavy ace count, suggests he will try to keep points short and get in front early. Baez’s edge is different: his season return numbers are stronger, and that can turn tight sets if he starts getting looks on second serves.

Both have played back-to-back matches and the recent workload is similar over five outings, but Mensik has logged 5 hours 25 minutes across his last three compared with Baez’s 4 hours 38 minutes, a small factor in a week that is still building towards the Australian Open.

Prediction

Auckland ATPPICK

Jakub Mensik

65%

Predicted Winner

Sebastian Baez

Overall indicators tilt towards Jakub Mensik, led by the market position at 1.4 and his recent serve-heavy profile, which has powered him through Auckland. Sebastian Baez’s unbeaten hard-court start and stronger return numbers keep the margin honest, especially in a best-of-three final, but the pricing and recent match patterns point slightly more towards Mensik.

Odds

Odds:EUUKUS