The Best Tennis Stats.
Our new tennis stats site is live!
Novak Djokovic and Stefanos Tsitsipas will meet in the Wimbledon 1/32-finals on 30 June, a best-of-five-set grass-court clash that pits an unseeded former world number one against a Greek struggling for form.
The data paints a stark picture: Djokovic is priced as a heavy 1.14 favourite, while Tsitsipas is a 5.5 underdog. Their 14 previous meetings, combined with Djokovic's superior grass-season form and Tsitsipas's recent struggles, all point toward a significant gap in current level.The head-to-head record is emphatically one-sided. Djokovic has beaten Tsitsipas 12 times in 14 matches, a margin that includes victories in finals at the French Open and Australian Open. Their last encounter, in the Shanghai quarter-finals in 2019, ended in a straight-sets win for Tsitsipas, but that result appears increasingly anomalous given the broader pattern. Djokovic has won 88% of his service games in their match-ups, while Tsitsipas has managed just 77%, a differential that has consistently applied scoreboard pressure.
Limited grass-court data for 2026 shows Djokovic with a perfect 1-0 record, having won his opener at Wimbledon, while Tsitsipas is 1-1 on the surface this season. More tellingly, Djokovic has a 95% service-game hold rate on grass, compared to Tsitsipas's 96%, but the Serb has converted 50% of his break points, twice the conversion rate of his opponent (26%). This break-point efficiency has often been the decisive factor in their meetings.
Tsitsipas S.
Djokovic N.
Tsitsipas has struggled for rhythm, winning just five of his last ten matches overall. He has lost four of his last six, with early exits in Rome and Mallorca, and his last match was a win over Hugo Gaston at Wimbledon. Djokovic also sits at 6-4 from his last ten, but the quality of opposition has been higher, including a run to the French Open fourth round and a semi-final in Australia. He has won four of his last five on grass, a momentum that his opponent lacks.
Bookmakers price Djokovic at 1.14 to win the match, with Tsitsipas out at 5.5. The first-set odds are similarly emphatic: Djokovic is 1.3 to take the opener, while Tsitsipas is 3.5. These prices confirm a heavy expectation of a comfortable Serbian victory.
Tsitsipas S.
Djokovic N.
The Best Tennis Stats.
Our new tennis stats site is live!
The combination of Djokovic's historic dominance, his superior break-point conversion, and Tsitsipas's patchy recent form creates a challenging outlook for the Greek. While fatigue may not be a decisive factor, Djokovic has played over 12 hours in his last three matches, compared to just over 6 hours for Tsitsipas, potentially leaving the Serb slightly more exposed to a lower-ranked opponent. However, the overwhelming weight of their shared history and the current market view points towards one clear outcome.
Prediction
Novak Djokovic
Stefanos Tsitsipas
The data strongly favours Djokovic. His commanding 12-2 head-to-head lead, combined with his superior break-point conversion and the market's heavy backing at 1.14, makes him the overwhelming favourite. While Tsitsipas has the talent to trouble anyone, the evidence suggests this is a steep assignment for him at Wimbledon.
Odds
