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Alexander Bublik opens his Wimbledon campaign against Thanasi Kokkinakis in the first round on 28 June, with bookmakers firmly backing the world number 11 in this best-of-five grass-court contest.
He carries heavy favourite status, reflecting a clear ranking gap. Yet the Australian arrives with useful recent surface mileage.Bublik has won 84% of his service games on grass this season. Yet his return numbers drop to just 9%. Kokkinakis has been more balanced on the surface. He has won 89% of his service games while taking 29% of return games. This suggests he can apply pressure when the first serve is missing.
They have met just once. The Australian secured a straight-sets victory on hard court in 2018. That result offers little tactical insight for a grass-court clash. It does show Kokkinakis knows how to navigate Bublik's unorthodox game.
Kokkinakis T.
Bublik A.
The world number 492 has played three grass matches in Dublin over the past fortnight, logging nearly six hours on court. He won two to claim a qualifying title. Bublik has gone 2-2 on the surface this summer, spending just under four hours in his last three matches. He suffered early exits in both Halle and Stuttgart. This raises questions about his current momentum.
Bookmakers price Bublik at 1.33 against Kokkinakis at 3.4. First-set odds sit at 1.5 and 2.63 respectively. The market clearly expects the favourite to establish early control.
Kokkinakis T.
Bublik A.
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This matchup hinges on whether Kokkinakis can find a way onto Bublik's second serve. The Kazakh has struggled to break opponents on grass. If Bublik finds his rhythm with his first delivery, his sheer firepower should overwhelm a lower-ranked opponent. Any dip in serving accuracy could invite the Australian to exploit his superior recent form.
Prediction
Alexander Bublik
Thanasi Kokkinakis
The sheer quality gap and market pricing make Bublik the clear favourite to progress at the All England Club. However, Kokkinakis' recent grass-court rhythm and better return statistics suggest this could be tighter than the odds imply. The world number 11 may face a stern test before asserting his dominance.
Odds
