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Victoria Mboko and Amanda Anisimova meet in the Indian Wells WTA last 16 on 10 March, with a best-of-three hard-court contest deciding one of the quarter-final places.
This preview also points readers towards how to follow the match live, while the analysis centres on a clear split in the numbers: Mboko brings the stronger hard-court record, but Anisimova has the firmer market backing and the stronger return profile.FINISHED
Mboko V.
Anisimova A.
6-4
, 6-1
Mboko has put together the fuller hard-court season so far, winning 15 of 19 matches compared with Anisimova's 9 wins from 13, and both have held 73% of their service games. The gap appears more clearly on return, though. Anisimova has won 44% of return games to Mboko's 38% and has also saved break points at a 60% rate, which gives her a slightly steadier statistical shape.
Both players are 7-3 across their last 10 matches, so there is little to separate them on simple form. Mboko has been the quicker starter, taking 70% of first sets and every deciding set in that run, while Anisimova's 44% return-games-won figure and 51% break-point conversion rate show how often she forces openings. The workload may matter as well: Mboko has spent 5 hours 37 minutes on court across the last five matches, compared with 8 hours 26 for Anisimova.
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Bookmakers price Anisimova at 1.53 against 2.5 for Mboko, and the first-set market follows the same line at 1.62 versus 2.3. That makes Anisimova a clear favourite, even if the gap is not wide enough to remove all doubt.
Mboko V.
Anisimova A.
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Mboko's stronger hard-court record and lighter recent schedule give her a real way into the match, especially if she continues to start quickly. Even so, Anisimova's edge on the return stands out in both the season view and the last-10 sample, and that fits the market. If she gets regular looks at second serve, the balance may tilt her way.
Prediction
Amanda Anisimova
Victoria Mboko
The overall indicators tilt towards Amanda Anisimova. The market has her in front and her return numbers are stronger on hard courts, which matters in a match where both players have held serve at the same rate over the season. Victoria Mboko's better win-loss record on the surface and lighter recent workload keep it competitive, but Anisimova remains the narrower data-led pick.
Odds
